Pakistan faces a cold winter as Qatar extends its LNG halt to the end of December

Pakistan is heading into winter short of gas, after QatarEnergy extended the suspension of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries until the end of December 2026. Pakistan’s petroleum minister confirmed the extension to The News, and it means the country’s main source of imported gas will stay largely cut off through December and January, the coldest months, when families use far more gas for heating, hot water and cooking.

The extension was first reported by Reuters on 27 and 28 October, when Italy’s Edison said it had received a notice from QatarEnergy, and sources told Reuters that buyers in Pakistan and Bangladesh had been told the same. The News reported on 31 October that the minister had confirmed it, saying it would run until 29 December, or “until the end of December”. The timing could hardly be worse: demand for piped gas in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected to triple in those months, while the government plans to arrange only about half the LNG cargoes it will need.

This is not sudden. QatarEnergy has not delivered normally since April 2026, after the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other began in late February, and Iranian strikes damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas plant in March. The suspension, known as force majeure, has been extended again and again. It forces Pakistan to buy expensive gas, ration what it has, and decide who goes without.

At a glance

What happened: QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries until the end of December 2026, and Pakistan’s petroleum minister confirmed it to The News on 31 October.

Why it matters: Pakistan gets most of its imported gas from Qatar, household demand triples in winter, and the government plans to arrange only 10 of the 20 LNG cargoes it needs for December and January.

What happens next: Pakistan will buy costly spot-market cargoes, give households priority, and watch whether any Qatari cargoes still arrive through special arrangements.

What happened

Force majeure is a legal term for an event outside a company’s control that stops it keeping a contract. In plain language, QatarEnergy is telling buyers that war damage and unsafe shipping mean it cannot deliver the gas it promised, so it is not breaking the contract by failing to deliver. The measure has been in force since April 2026, and the end date has now moved from early December to the end of December.

The clearest public sign came from Italy. Edison, one of Qatar’s biggest European customers, said in a message on the platform of Italy’s energy markets manager, GME, that QatarEnergy would not deliver three further cargoes to the Adriatic LNG terminal. Edison holds a long-term contract for 6.4 billion cubic metres of gas a year, around 10 percent of Italy’s annual use, under a deal in force since 2009 that runs for 25 years.

Reuters reported that clients in Pakistan and Bangladesh had also been told their notices would run until the end of the year. Petrobangla chairman Abdul Mannan told Reuters his company was trying to buy extra cargoes on the spot market. “We are trying to secure additional spot cargoes to bridge the supply gap, but at a significant cost, driving our import bill sharply higher and putting considerable pressure on our finances,” he said. For India, Qatar extended the suspension for November only.

In Pakistan, the minister’s confirmation removed doubt. An earlier report had noted that QatarEnergy had not publicly confirmed a December extension specifically for Pakistani buyers, and that neither Pakistan LNG Limited nor Pakistan State Oil had announced one. The minister’s statement, with the Reuters report that South Asian clients had been told the same, now makes the position clear, even though the exact wording of any notice to Pakistani buyers has not been published.

Officials said in early October the suspension ran through 4 November; within weeks, that date was replaced by the end of December.

Why Pakistan is so exposed

Pakistan depends on Qatar for almost all its imported gas. Last winter it imported 36 LNG cargoes, and 35 came from Qatar. Imports rose from six cargoes in November 2025 to 10 in December, 12 in January 2026 and eight in February. The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025-26 said imported LNG made up about one-fifth of national gas use between July 2025 and March 2026. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies has noted that 7.5 million tonnes a year of Pakistan’s 8.4 million tonnes of long-term LNG contracts are linked to Qatari projects — almost nine in ten tonnes.

Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik told the National Assembly that Qatari supplies of about 900 million cubic feet per day, known as mmcfd, had been suspended, forcing rationing. He said households on the piped network were getting gas for about eight hours a day, around meal times — a tight window before the coldest weather has even arrived.

Demand explains why winter is the danger point. Sui gas company officials told The News that household demand in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa could jump from 500 mmcfd to 1,500 mmcfd in December and January, while in Sindh and Balochistan it is expected to double, from 300 mmcfd to 600 mmcfd. Qatar’s LNG exports reportedly fell by 96 percent by the end of August 2026, with only 18 cargoes shipped by then, against 509 in the same period a year earlier, according to figures cited in The News. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of world LNG trade passed in 2025, is the bottleneck: ships need a safe route, a willing crew and insurance, and the war has made all three harder to arrange.

Some gas has still arrived. Pakistan received two cargoes in September and two in October, arranged with assurances of safe passage through the strait from Iranian and American officials. The first October cargo, aboard the Al-Areesh, berthed at Engro’s terminal in mid-October and resumed supply at about 150 mmcfd after the terminal had sat idle since 26 September. A second cargo restarted the Pakistan GasPort terminal, idle since 9 October. Four cargoes in two months cover only a fraction of winter needs, and each depended on special assurances, not a normal schedule.

What it will cost

Losing cheap contracted gas means buying replacement gas on the spot market, at whatever price sellers ask that week. OilPrice said Pakistan would have to pay more than $1 billion for winter LNG. Asian spot prices are at four-year highs, and the government plans to buy 10 cargoes at double the price of its long-term Qatari deal. The Express Tribune estimated the 10 spot cargoes alone at about $863 million, and the total winter LNG bill at roughly $1.29 billion. The two figures count slightly different things, but both point above $1 billion, for less gas than Pakistan needs.

The News reported a government price limit of about $27 per million British thermal units, or MMBtu, for spot purchases, while officials warned extra cargoes could cost around $29 per MMBtu. Every cargo helps, but each adds to the import bill, uses scarce foreign currency, and feeds into electricity prices and business costs.

The government plans to arrange 10 cargoes for December and January, against an estimated need of 20 — nine in December and 11 in January. A separate plan put the total at about 22 cargoes from November to February, with roughly 10 bought on the spot market. Either way, about half the gas needed in the coldest weeks is not covered by cargoes now planned. The gap must be filled by local gas, by cutting use, or by buying more later at whatever price is then available.

Europe shows how far prices have moved. The Dutch TTF benchmark rose 1.5 percent on the morning the extension was reported, to $108.51, or 97.53 euros, per megawatt-hour — the highest European gas price since the 2022 energy crisis. Wood Mackenzie called Pakistan the South Asian market hit hardest by the loss of Qatari supply, estimating the Hormuz disruption cut Pakistan-bound volumes by up to 0.4 million tonnes a month between March and November.

Who gets gas first

When gas is short, the government must choose. The News reported that households are expected to get priority, which could leave industry with restricted gas. The extension threatens severe cuts for power plants, industry, fertiliser plants, cement factories and CNG stations. Power plants without gas must burn another fuel or generate less power. Factories may cut output, lose export orders or send workers home. Fertiliser shortages can push up food prices later, since they decide how much farmers can grow next season.

The government has said domestic users should get priority for locally produced gas, while regasified LNG should go first to power and industry. That sounds clear, but it needs clear rules: households need to know when gas will be available, and factories need to know how much they will get, so they can plan. Without a published schedule, allocation risks becoming uneven or unpredictable.

The squeeze is spreading to cooking gas too. Officials warn the shortage will push more households towards LPG, the cylinder fuel used where piped gas does not reach, just as an Iran border closure has cut LPG supplies and pushed its prices sharply higher. LNG and LPG are different fuels — LNG is natural gas chilled to a liquid and shipped by tanker, while LPG is propane and butane sold in cylinders — but Pakistan’s winter energy squeeze is now hitting both at once.

What Pakistan can do, and what to watch

No single step can replace Qatari gas before winter; the options are about limiting damage. First, buy carefully on the spot market, weighing not just price but arrival date, ship availability, insurance and whether a cargo suits Pakistan’s terminals. Second, look for other suppliers: the United States and Azerbaijan have been named, and Azerbaijan’s SOCAR delivered to Pakistan before, under a 2023 agreement — but volumes, transport costs and dates must be checked before any purchase is counted on. Third, let private firms use spare capacity at Pakistan’s LNG terminals to import their own gas, with clear rules on access and charges, so the benefit is not limited to a few companies able to pay world prices. Fourth, publish a clear supply schedule, so families and businesses can plan instead of guessing.

Watch the next few weeks for spot-purchase announcements from Pakistan LNG Limited and Pakistan State Oil, and for any further Qatari cargoes arriving through special arrangements. Watch prices: if Asian spot prices stay near four-year highs, each cargo will cost more. Watch household gas hours and factory output for the first signs of how the shortage is being shared. And watch January: the extension runs to the end of December, but nothing guarantees normal deliveries will resume then. The Ras Laffan plant still needs repair, the strait still needs to be safe, and the war has not ended.

Frequently asked questions

What is LNG, and why does Pakistan import it?

LNG is natural gas chilled until it becomes a liquid, so it can be carried by ship. Pakistan imports it because its own gas fields do not produce enough, especially in winter. The liquid is turned back into gas at a coastal terminal and sent through pipes to homes, power plants and factories.

What does force majeure mean here?

It is a legal term for an event outside a company’s control that stops it keeping a contract. QatarEnergy is using it to say war damage to its Ras Laffan plant and unsafe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz mean it cannot deliver the gas it promised.

How much gas is Pakistan short of this winter?

The government estimates it needs 20 LNG cargoes for December and January, nine in December and 11 in January, and plans to arrange 10. That leaves about half the expected need uncovered. Household demand in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa alone is expected to rise from 500 to 1,500 million cubic feet a day.

Why is Qatari gas so important?

Last winter, 35 of the 36 LNG cargoes Pakistan imported came from Qatar. About 7.5 million tonnes a year of Pakistan’s 8.4 million tonnes of long-term LNG contracts are linked to Qatari projects, and imported LNG made up about one-fifth of all gas Pakistan used between July 2025 and March 2026.

Will households or factories be cut off first?

Households are expected to get priority, according to The News, which could leave industry with restricted gas. In practice, both homes and factories are likely to face limits, depending on how much gas actually arrives.

How much will replacement gas cost?

OilPrice reported Pakistan would pay more than $1 billion for winter LNG, buying spot cargoes at about double its long-term Qatari price. The Express Tribune put the 10 spot cargoes at about $863 million, and the total winter bill at roughly $1.29 billion.

Is any Qatari gas still reaching Pakistan?

Yes, but little. Pakistan received two cargoes in September and two in October, arranged with assurances of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. One October cargo aboard the Al-Areesh restarted Engro’s terminal at about 150 million cubic feet a day. That covers only a fraction of winter needs.

What happens after December?

The force majeure runs until the end of December 2026, but that does not guarantee normal deliveries in January. The plant still needs repair, shipping still needs to be safe, and the war has not ended, so further extensions remain possible.

Conclusion

Pakistan’s winter gas crisis is no longer a warning. It is a fact, confirmed by the government, measured in cargoes that will not arrive and a bill of more than $1 billion for the gas that must be bought instead. The extension to the end of December ends any hope of normal supplies before the coldest weeks, leaving the country with about half the LNG it expects to need for December and January.

The choices are hard but clear: buy what can be bought, share what arrives fairly, with households first but without treating factories, fertiliser plants and power stations as expendable, and tell people honestly when gas will be available. Beyond this winter, Pakistan needs a system that does not leave heating, cooking and industry depending on one supplier and one narrow waterway. It cannot control the war in the Gulf or reopen the Strait of Hormuz on its own timetable — but it can decide how much damage an outside shock is allowed to cause at home.

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.

Sources

• https://www.thenews.pk/print/1446060-winter-gas-crisis-looms-as-qatar-extends-lng-force-majeure (The News, 31 October 2026)
• https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/QatarEnergy-Extends-LNG-Force-Majeure-to-End-of-2026.amp.html (OilPrice, 28 October 2026)
• https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/qatar-extends-force-majeure-lng-cargoes-italys-edison-until/ (Reuters via Global Banking & Finance, 28 October 2026)
• https://zarknews.com/qatar-lng-force-majeure-pakistan-winter-gas/ (Zark News, October 2026)
• https://www.thenews.pk/print/1445609-the-limits-of-crisis-management (The News, 29 October 2026)