Russia May Have Rehearsed an Attack on a Western Satellite, Expert Warns

A Russian military satellite flew dangerously close to a Western commercial satellite last month in a move that one military space specialist says “looks like an attack rehearsal” — and two more Russian spacecraft are now moving towards another satellite from the same company.

The warning, reported by Reuters on 5 November 2026, is the sharpest yet about a new kind of threat in orbit: not a missile fired from the ground, but a satellite quietly sidling up to another satellite, close enough to damage or disable it.

No attack has happened. No satellite has been damaged. But the experts watching the skies say the pattern of movement is hard to explain as routine — and they say it may not be over yet.

What happened in orbit

The satellite at the centre of the story is called X36. It belongs to ICEYE, a Finnish company that operates radar-imaging satellites. Its pictures are used by Western governments and militaries, including Ukraine.

The Russian spacecraft is called Cosmos 2612. It is a military satellite, launched in April 2026 as one of six Russian military satellites sent into orbit that month. In public records it is listed as a “servicing inspection satellite” — the kind of spacecraft that is designed to approach other objects in orbit, look at them closely, and in theory service or repair them.

Between 15 and 19 October, Cosmos 2612 closed in on X36. Satellite trackers who watched the approach say it came within about a kilometre of the commercial spacecraft — and some analysts believe it may have come within a few hundred metres, or even less.

To understand how close that is, remember that these objects are travelling at roughly 27,000 kilometres per hour, hundreds of kilometres above the Earth. At those speeds, a gap of a few hundred metres is almost touching. Three space specialists told Reuters the incident was one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low orbit.

The approach was watched in real time by independent trackers. Dutch satellite tracking specialist Marco Langbroek followed a series of Russian orbital adjustments that brought Cosmos 2612 unusually close to X36, estimating on 17 October that the two were separated by only one to two kilometres. On the same day, the US space intelligence company Vantor released an image showing Cosmos 2612 about one kilometre from ICEYE-X36. Further observations suggested the Russian spacecraft may have come even closer on 18 October, although the exact distance remains uncertain.

After the encounter, Cosmos 2612 moved away. It is now about 400 kilometres (250 miles) from where it was near X36, according to Greg Gillinger, the analyst who has been tracking the Russian satellites.

But the story did not end there. Two other Russian military satellites — described as siblings of Cosmos 2612 — are now drifting towards the orbital path of another ICEYE spacecraft, X37. The US space-tracking firm COMSPOC has separately reported that the two spacecraft are moving into increasingly favourable positions to approach X37. There has been no confirmed close encounter with X37, and the intentions of the Russian satellites are unknown.

“Looks like an attack rehearsal”

The strongest warning came from Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, a US company that trains American space forces, and a former US Air Force intelligence officer.

“The encounter looks like an attack rehearsal,” Gillinger told Reuters. “This is the most aggressive posture I’ve seen Russia take in terms of threatening satellites from another nation.”

His reasoning is straightforward. A satellite that wants to spy on another satellite, or listen in on its signals, does not need to get within a few hundred metres of it. It can do that work from much further away. Coming that close, Gillinger argues, only makes sense if you are testing whether you could physically hit it — what specialists call a kinetic attack.

A kinetic attack in space means destroying or disabling a satellite by crashing into it, or by hitting it with an object. It is the simplest and oldest idea in space warfare, and also one of the most destructive: a collision at orbital speed shatters both objects and scatters debris that can threaten everything else in the same orbit.

Gillinger was careful, though, to add a warning of his own. He said the ability to perform such manoeuvres was not in itself evidence that Russia was preparing or rehearsing an attack, and that its purpose could not be determined from publicly available orbital data alone. In other words, the movements look like a rehearsal — but looking like one is not the same as being one.

The United States government has gone further in its language. Thomas DiNanno, the US Under Secretary of State, said on X after the mid-October incident that Cosmos 2612 had been “intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite” in behaviour “consistent with on-orbit weapons operations.”

Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment from Reuters.

Why ICEYE matters — and why Ukraine is part of the story

To understand why this particular satellite was approached, you need to know what ICEYE does.

ICEYE operates synthetic aperture radar satellites — a type of satellite that can take pictures of the Earth’s surface at night and through cloud cover, when ordinary cameras see nothing. That makes the images valuable for monitoring military equipment, infrastructure and troop movements in all weather and at all hours.

Ukraine has used ICEYE imagery since 2022 to support its intelligence operations in the war with Russia. The company sells its pictures to Western governments and militaries as well as to commercial customers.

Moscow has repeatedly warned that Western commercial satellites helping Ukraine could become legitimate targets for retaliation. That warning is one reason the October encounter has been taken so seriously: the satellite that was approached is not a random piece of space hardware. It is part of a system that helps Ukraine see the battlefield.

ICEYE itself has played down the incident. Ann Stevens, the head of the company’s US operations, told Reuters that X36 “has been and will continue to be a productive satellite” and that its constellation of radar-imaging satellites is resilient if one of them is disrupted. The company has said the October incident did not stop X36 from operating.

This was not the first approach

The October encounter was the most dramatic, but it was not the first time Russian satellites have shadowed ICEYE’s fleet.

In May 2026, Russia positioned four of its new military satellites close to X36, according to space analysts. ICEYE responded by moving its satellite, and the Russian spacecraft followed with further manoeuvres, the company’s chief executive, Rafal Modrzewski, told Reuters in September.

Then, in early October, Cosmos 2612 positioned itself hundreds of kilometres behind X36. Over several days it rapidly closed the distance, until it was within about a kilometre around the middle of the month.

That slow, deliberate build-up is part of what worries the analysts. A satellite does not drift within a few hundred metres of another satellite by accident. Orbital mechanics are precise: to get that close, and to stay there, a spacecraft has to be steered, burn fuel, and be guided by someone watching the numbers. The approach took days of careful manoeuvring.

Andrew Turner, a space consultant and retired senior British air force officer, told Reuters that Russia’s approach to X36 “really elevates the potential of an attack” — whether that attack would be deliberate or the result of an accidental collision.

The caution: nobody can prove what Russia intended

For all the alarm, the experts are careful about one thing: nobody outside Russia knows what Cosmos 2612 was meant to do.

Major General Michael Traut, Germany’s military space commander, told Reuters that close approaches like this one could be used for inspection, observation or interference, depending on what equipment the spacecraft carries. A servicing satellite, after all, is built to get close to other satellites. That is its job.

“We must therefore consider the entire spectrum of possible effects, ranging from temporarily disrupting a satellite’s operations to permanently disabling it,” Traut said.

He cautioned that the ability to perform such manoeuvres was not in itself evidence that Russia was preparing or rehearsing an attack, and that its purpose could not be determined from publicly available orbital data alone.

That uncertainty is the heart of the problem. In space, the same spacecraft can be a mechanic or a weapon. A satellite designed to inspect a broken satellite can also be used to smash a working one. A satellite that approaches another satellite to take a photograph looks, from the ground, exactly like a satellite approaching another satellite to ram it — until the moment of impact, or the moment it turns away.

This ambiguity is not new. For years, Russia, China and the United States have all operated satellites that can manoeuvre close to other objects in orbit. What has changed, the specialists say, is the target: a commercial satellite, operated by a private company, that is helping a country at war.

A wider race to put weapons in space

The ICEYE incident is part of a bigger and darker picture. The world’s major powers are all preparing for the possibility that a future conflict could extend into space — and they are increasingly open about it.

Washington recently acknowledged that it has deployed weapons in orbit. Earlier this year, the head of US Space Command said that Russia had deployed a space weapon within reach of critical US national security satellites.

Germany’s space commander warned in October that similar Russian manoeuvres could threaten larger commercial networks, including SpaceX’s Starlink — the satellite internet system that has become vital to Ukraine’s military communications as well as to civilian users around the world.

The concern goes beyond a single satellite being destroyed. Even without an attack, repeated close approaches can force a satellite to burn fuel to move out of the way, shortening its working life. A constellation like ICEYE’s or Starlink’s depends on dozens of satellites working together; harassing them one by one could wear the whole system down.

And if a collision did happen, the debris would not stay in one place. At orbital speeds, fragments from a smashed satellite can travel for years, threatening other satellites in the same orbit — including Russia’s own.

What happens next

Several things will decide whether this becomes a one-off scare or a pattern.

The first is what the two sibling Russian satellites do next. They are moving towards the orbital path of ICEYE-X37, but they have not yet made a close approach. Trackers like Langbroek, and companies like COMSPOC and LeoLabs, will be watching their movements day by day. If they close in on X37 the way Cosmos 2612 closed in on X36, the warning will get louder.

The second is how ICEYE and other commercial operators respond. ICEYE has already shown it will move its satellites when threatened, and it says its constellation can absorb the loss of a single spacecraft. But moving a satellite costs fuel, and fuel is a satellite’s lifespan. A company cannot keep dodging forever.

The third is the diplomatic response. The United States has already described the October incident in the language of weapons operations. Whether Washington and its allies raise the matter formally — through the United Nations, or directly with Moscow — will show how seriously governments are taking it.

The fourth is whether any rules can be agreed. There is no clear international law that says how close one satellite may come to another, and no agreed definition of a threatening approach in orbit. That gap is part of why incidents like this one are so hard to deal with: everyone can see the manoeuvre, but no one can agree on what it means.

Why this matters

It is easy to hear “satellite” and think of something remote and abstract. But the satellites above us run much of modern life: navigation, weather forecasts, banking, television, internet, and the maps on our phones. The same satellites also watch the weather, track ships, monitor crops, and help rescue teams find people after disasters.

The ICEYE story matters because it shows that this infrastructure — much of it now owned by private companies rather than governments — has become part of a war. A Finnish company’s satellite, helping Ukraine see through clouds at night, was approached by a Russian military spacecraft to within a distance a person could walk in a few minutes, while both were travelling at 27,000 kilometres per hour.

Nothing was destroyed. The satellite is still working. But the line between peacetime space activity and warfare in orbit has got a little thinner, and the people who watch the skies are warning that the next approach may not end with the other satellite simply moving away.

Frequently asked questions

What is ICEYE?

ICEYE is a Finnish company that operates radar-imaging satellites. Its satellites use synthetic aperture radar, which can take pictures of the Earth’s surface at night and through clouds. Its imagery is used by Western governments and militaries, including Ukraine.

What is Cosmos 2612?

Cosmos 2612 is a Russian military satellite, one of six launched by Russia in April 2026. It is publicly listed as a servicing inspection satellite — a spacecraft designed to approach other objects in orbit. It approached ICEYE’s X36 satellite in mid-October 2026.

How close did the Russian satellite get?

Satellite trackers say Cosmos 2612 came within about a kilometre of X36, and some analysts believe it may have come within a few hundred metres or less. The exact distance is uncertain.

Was the satellite attacked or damaged?

No. No attack on ICEYE-X36 has been confirmed, and the satellite is still working. ICEYE says its constellation can keep operating even if one satellite is disrupted.

What is an attack rehearsal in space?

It means manoeuvring a satellite as if you were going to attack another one — getting close enough to hit it — without actually striking. Specialists say the October approach looked like this, because such a close approach is not needed for spying or for interfering with signals.

What are the two other Russian satellites doing?

Two more Russian military satellites are drifting towards the orbital path of another ICEYE spacecraft, X37. There has been no confirmed close encounter with X37, and their intentions are unknown.

Can anything be done about it?

There is no agreed international rule on how close one satellite may approach another. Commercial operators can move their satellites, governments can protest diplomatically, and trackers can keep watching — but there is no space police force to stop a close approach.

Sources

• Reuters, “Russia may have rehearsed attack on satellite, specialist says, flagging another approach”, 5 November 2026: https://wixx.com/2026/11/05/russia-may-have-rehearsed-attack-on-satellite-specialist-says-flagging-another-approach/
• Aerospace Global News, “Russia ‘rehearses attack’ on Finnish ICEYE satellite, experts warn”, 5 November 2026: https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/russia-rehearses-attack-finnish-iceye-satellite/

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.