IEA: World to Add 4,800 GW of Renewable Energy by 2031 as Energy Security Drives Solar Boom

The world is about to build renewable energy faster than ever before. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global renewable power capacity will grow by almost 4,800 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2031 — nearly 60% more than was added in the previous six years.

The forecast comes from Renewables 2026, the IEA’s annual report on the sector, published on 6 November 2026. And the reason behind the boom has changed. It is no longer mainly about the climate. Today, countries are building wind and solar power because they want energy security — they want to depend less on imported oil and gas, and less on fuel prices they cannot control.

“Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets — but today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

The headline numbers

The IEA’s forecast is one of the biggest clean-energy projections ever published. Here are the key figures:

• Almost 4,800 GW of new renewable power capacity will be added worldwide in 2026–2031, almost 60% more than in the previous six-year period.
• Solar power will lead the way. Solar panels (known as solar PV) are set to account for more than three-quarters of all new renewable capacity growth to 2031. Onshore wind comes second.
• Renewables will supply almost half of the world’s electricity. Today, renewables provide about a third of global electricity. By 2031, that share will rise to almost 45%, according to the report. Birol put it simply: “Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it.”
• Solar will overtake hydropower. Solar is expected to pass hydropower by 2029 to become the largest source of renewable electricity in the world. Wind and solar combined will more than double their share of global electricity, reaching more than 28% by 2031.

To understand the scale, 4,800 GW is an enormous amount of power. One gigawatt is roughly enough electricity to power around 750,000 homes at once. The new capacity being added over the next five years is more than the entire electricity system of the United States and the European Union combined.

Why energy security is now the main driver

The IEA is clear about what changed. Global energy markets have faced “unprecedented disruptions” since the war in Iran broke out at the end of February 2026. Oil prices have swung sharply, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been threatened, and governments have been reminded how risky it is to depend on fuel from far away.

That worry is pushing countries to build power at home, from the sun and wind in their own backyards. The report says stronger policy support and sharper energy-security concerns are now speeding up renewable power in India, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

“The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world,” Birol said. “This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector.”

This is a big shift in how governments talk about clean energy. For years, solar and wind were sold mainly as a way to cut carbon emissions and fight climate change. Those reasons still matter. But in 2026, the argument that wins in cabinet meetings is a simpler one: homegrown power cannot be cut off by a war, a blockade or a price spike in another part of the world.

The growth is spreading beyond China

China has dominated renewable energy for a decade, and it will remain the biggest contributor to global growth. But its share is falling. The IEA expects China’s share of new renewable capacity to drop from over 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% over the forecast period, as its renewable energy policies change.

For the first time, the amount of renewable capacity added in emerging and developing economies outside China is expected to match the amount added in advanced economies. In other words, the clean-energy boom is no longer a story about a few rich countries and China. It is now happening almost everywhere.

The regional picture is striking:

• India is emerging as the world’s second-largest growth market. Its total renewable capacity is set to more than double by 2031. New capacity additions in India in 2026–2031 are expected to be 2.6 times higher than in the previous six years, and India will account for nearly 8.5% of all the renewable capacity added worldwide.
• Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa will see their renewable capacity additions almost triple compared with the previous six-year period.
• Asia Pacific outside China will add more than 840 GW of renewables over 2026–2031, more than double the level added in 2020–2025.

This matters because these are the regions where electricity demand is growing fastest. Hundreds of millions of people are joining the middle class, buying air conditioners, fridges and electric vehicles, and moving to cities. The power to meet that demand will increasingly come from solar panels and wind turbines rather than imported coal, gas or oil.

Rooftop solar: the quiet revolution

Not all of the growth comes from giant solar farms and wind parks built by big companies. A large part of it is happening on rooftops, driven by ordinary people.

Faced with high fuel prices and unreliable electricity supplies in some markets, households and small businesses around the world are increasingly turning to rooftop solar panels, which are affordable and can be installed quickly. The IEA says these small-scale installations have already helped improve electricity services for around 70 million households worldwide.

This is one of the most hopeful parts of the report. Rooftop solar does not need a new power station, a new transmission line or a government contract. A family can put panels on its roof and start generating its own electricity within days. For homes in areas with weak grids or frequent power cuts, that can be life-changing — keeping the lights on, the fans running and the phones charged.

Transport is going greener too

The report also looks beyond electricity. It forecasts that the use of renewable energy for transport will rise by more than 60% by 2031, by which point it will cover 6% of the transport sector’s energy demand worldwide.

Electric vehicles are the biggest part of this change. Renewable electricity used by electric vehicles accounts for around 45% of the increase. Biofuels — fuels made from plants and waste — make the second-largest contribution.

As an immediate response to high fuel prices, several countries, notably in Southeast Asia and Latin America, have raised blending mandates, which set the minimum share of biofuels that must be mixed into petrol and diesel sold at the pump. The IEA has raised its forecast for biofuels by 40% compared with last year’s report.

India becomes a manufacturing alternative

The report also highlights a quieter but important change: where solar panels are made. The market for solar panels has long been dominated by China. Now India is emerging as an important alternative source of supply. Its share of global solar panel manufacturing is expected to almost double to 17% over the next five years.

That helps diversify a supply chain that remains highly concentrated. For countries worried about depending on one supplier for the equipment they need to build their energy future, a second big manufacturing base is welcome news. It also means more jobs and more industrial investment in India itself.

The big problem: the grid cannot keep up

The report is not all good news. It warns of a serious bottleneck: electricity grids are not being built fast enough to carry all the new renewable power.

The amount of advanced-stage renewable energy and battery storage projects waiting for a grid connection worldwide rose by 60% over the past year to 3,000 GW. That is four times the amount of wind and solar capacity connected to the grid last year.

In simple terms, thousands of wind and solar projects are ready to go but are stuck in a queue, waiting for permission to connect to the grid. If grids do not catch up, much of the new capacity will sit idle — or never get built at all.

The IEA says the highest priority for countries is to make sure investment in electricity grids keeps pace with the growth of renewable capacity. That should go together with reforms to speed up the connection of new renewable projects to the grid.

Battery storage is part of the answer. Batteries can store solar power generated during the day and release it in the evening, when demand is highest. The deployment of battery storage has been speeding up in many countries. Digital technology, including artificial intelligence, can also help by shifting electricity demand to times when renewable power is plentiful.

What it means for Pakistan

Pakistan is not named as a headline market in the IEA report, but the trends it describes matter directly for the country. Pakistan imports most of its fuel, pays for it in dollars, and has lived through repeated power crises and high electricity bills. Every solar panel installed at home is one less unit of imported fuel the country has to buy.

Rooftop solar has already become popular in Pakistani homes, shops and factories, where people are looking for relief from expensive and unreliable grid power. The global fall in solar panel prices, the rise of battery storage and the spread of small-scale solar described in the IEA report all point in the same direction: solar is becoming the cheapest and fastest way for countries like Pakistan to add power.

The warning about grids applies to Pakistan too. Solar panels are only useful if the grid can handle them — or if homes have batteries to store the power. As Pakistan’s solar boom continues, investment in grids and storage will decide how much of that power can actually be used.

What happens next

The IEA’s forecast is a prediction, not a promise. It assumes governments follow through on their policies and that grids, supply chains and investment keep pace. The 3,000 GW grid queue is a reminder that building power plants is only half the job.

But the direction is clear. For the first time, the growth of renewable energy is being driven as much by security and economics as by climate policy. Solar power is now the cheapest source of new electricity in many parts of the world, and the countries building it fastest are the ones that want to control their own energy future.

If the forecast holds, then by 2031 nearly half of all the electricity in the world will come from renewables — and solar panels, many of them on rooftops, will be the single biggest source of that clean power.

Frequently asked questions

What is a gigawatt (GW)?

A gigawatt is a unit of power equal to one billion watts. One GW of capacity can generate roughly enough electricity to power around 750,000 homes at the same time, depending on the type of power plant and how much it runs.

What is solar PV?

Solar PV (photovoltaic) is the technology used in solar panels. It converts sunlight directly into electricity. It is different from solar thermal power, which uses the sun’s heat. Solar PV is the fastest-growing energy technology in the world.

Why is solar growing faster than wind?

Solar panels are cheap, quick to install and work almost anywhere the sun shines. A solar farm can be built in months, while a wind farm takes longer. Solar panels can also be installed on rooftops, which wind turbines cannot. That flexibility is why solar is set to account for more than three-quarters of new renewable capacity to 2031.

What is the IEA?

The International Energy Agency is an intergovernmental organisation based in Paris. It was founded in 1974 and advises governments on energy policy. Its annual renewables report is one of the most closely watched forecasts in the global energy industry.

Will renewables replace fossil fuels completely?

Not yet. Even by 2031, renewables will supply just under half of the world’s electricity, and fossil fuels will still provide a large share. But the IEA’s forecast shows the balance shifting steadily. The bigger challenge is not building solar and wind, but upgrading grids and storage so that all that clean power can be used.

Sources

• International Energy Agency — “Energy security concerns spur faster renewables growth across a widening constellation of countries” (6 November 2026): https://www.iea.org/news/energy-security-concerns-spur-faster-renewables-growth-across-a-widening-constellation-of-countries
• RenewEconomy — “Trump’s war in Iran has rocketed renewables to the top of the policy agenda, says IEA”: https://reneweconomy.com.au/trumps-war-in-iran-has-rocketed-renewables-to-the-top-of-the-policy-agenda-says-iea/
• GreentechLead — “India renewable energy market to grow 2.6 times by 2031, capture 8.5 percent of global capacity expansion: IEA”: https://greentechlead.com/renewable-energy/india-renewable-energy-market-to-grow-2-6-times-by-2031-capture-8-5-percent-of-global-capacity-expansion-iea-56353

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.