Rebeca Grynspan Extends Lead in Race to Become Next UN Secretary-General

The race to choose the next leader of the United Nations has a clear frontrunner — and she just got stronger.

Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan won 12 votes in favour and only three against in the latest informal poll of the UN Security Council on Thursday, 5 November 2026. It was her best result yet in eight secret ballots held over recent months to find a successor to António Guterres, whose second five-year term as UN secretary-general ends on 31 December 2026.

Grynspan, the head of the UN’s trade and development agency, has now led in seven of the eight polls. But leading is not the same as winning. To be recommended to the General Assembly, a candidate needs at least nine votes in favour — and, crucially, no “discourage” vote from any of the five permanent members of the Security Council: the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France. Each of those five holds a veto.

With less than two months left before Guterres steps down, the Council still has not agreed on a name. The question now is whether Grynspan’s growing support can overcome the hidden vetoes standing in her way — or whether the race will drag on into December, as it has done before.

What happened in the latest vote

The Security Council’s informal polls, known as straw polls, are held behind closed doors. Council members mark each candidate as “encourage”, “discourage” or “no opinion”. The results are not officially published, but they are reported by diplomats and journalists close to the process.

In Thursday’s eighth ballot, Grynspan received 12 “encourage” votes and three “discourage” votes, according to Reuters, which cited people close to the process. That is one vote better than the previous poll on 30 October, when she won 11 votes in favour and four against.

The rest of the field barely moved:

• Rafael Grossi of Argentina, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stayed in second place with nine “encourage” votes, four “discourage” and two “no opinion” — the same as last week.
• Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, her country’s ambassador to the UN, came third with eight votes in favour. Her “discourage” votes fell from six to five.
• Lana Nusseibeh of the United Arab Emirates, a late entrant to the race, again came fourth with seven votes in favour, six against and two “no opinion”.
• Feridun Sinirlioğlu of Türkiye, another late entrant, finished sixth with just three votes in favour, eight against and four “no opinion”.
• Olara Otunnu of Uganda received four votes in favour and nine against, while María Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador won three in favour and 10 against. Ivonne A-Baki, also from Ecuador and nominated by Tonga, received one vote in favour and 14 against.

Eight candidates took part in the ballot. The results were reported by both Reuters and PassBlue, a news outlet that covers the United Nations closely.

The veto problem

Grynspan’s numbers look strong. Twelve out of 15 Council members back her, well above the nine votes needed. So why has she not been chosen already?

The answer lies in the three “discourage” votes — and in the way the ballots are counted.

In the most recent polls, the ballots have not been colour-coded, which means nobody outside the room knows whether the “discourage” votes came from ordinary Council members or from one of the five permanent members with veto power. A single “discourage” from a permanent member is enough to block a candidate.

We do know that Grynspan has faced veto-level opposition before. In the sixth straw poll last month — the only one that used colour-coded ballots — she received two negative votes from permanent members. Reports have pointed to the United States as a source of opposition throughout the process, and some reports have also raised the possibility of Russian opposition this time. Neither claim has been confirmed, because the latest ballot did not identify who voted against her.

This is the central tension of the race. Grynspan is the choice of most of the Council, but the Council cannot recommend her unless the five permanent members all agree — or at least none of them blocks her.

Why the world is watching this race

The next UN secretary-general will take office on 1 January 2027, inheriting an organisation under serious strain.

Reuters reported that whoever wins will have to deal with several wars, cuts in US funding to the UN, and the organisation’s declining political relevance as Washington has pulled out of dozens of UN agencies. The United States, the UN’s biggest funder, has reduced its contributions, leaving the world body short of money at a time when demand for its help — from peacekeeping to humanitarian aid — remains high.

The choice also matters for what the UN stands for. In the UN’s more than 80-year history, there has never been a woman secretary-general. By tradition, the job rotates between regions, and Latin America is next in line. Grynspan, a Costa Rican, fits both of those historic firsts: she would be the first woman to lead the UN, and the first Latin American since Peru’s Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, who served from 1982 to 1991.

In an interview with Reuters earlier this month, Grynspan said the UN had become too risk-averse, and that its next leader must be prepared to bear the cost of diplomatic failure — and to try again. It was a message aimed at critics who say the UN has become cautious and slow, and at member states that want a leader willing to take political risks to end wars and protect civilians.

Who is Rebeca Grynspan?

Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis, born on 14 December 1955, is a Costa Rican economist and diplomat with a long career in international development.

She served as vice president of Costa Rica and later held senior roles at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), where she worked on development policy across Latin America and the world. In September 2021, Guterres appointed her as the eighth secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the UN body that works on trade, investment and development. She was the first woman to lead that agency.

As head of UNCTAD, she helped broker the Black Sea Grain Initiative during the war in Ukraine, a deal that allowed grain exports to resume from Ukrainian ports and helped keep global food prices down. She also led the agency’s first rebranding in 60 years in 2024, renaming it “UN Trade and Development”.

In October 2025, the government of Costa Rica formally nominated her as its candidate to succeed Guterres. She has been the frontrunner in most of the straw polls since then — leading in six of the first seven, with only the August poll putting Guyana’s Rodrigues-Birkett ahead.

The other candidates

While Grynspan leads, the race is not a one-person contest, and the Council could still turn to someone else if her path stays blocked.

Rafael Grossi, the Argentine diplomat who leads the IAEA, has held second place steadily. As head of the world’s nuclear watchdog, he is well known to governments, and his nine “encourage” votes meet the minimum threshold. But his four “discourage” votes are also a problem, and he would face the same veto question.

Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana’s ambassador to the UN, briefly led the race in August and remains a respected figure in the Council, where Guyana currently sits as an elected member. Her eight votes in favour put her within reach of the threshold, but she would need to win over more members — and avoid vetoes — to move ahead.

Lana Nusseibeh of the UAE entered the race on 21 October and has faced pushback from civil society groups and media scrutiny over her country’s role in the war in Sudan. Her seven votes in favour have not moved in two polls.

Feridun Sinirlioğlu of Türkiye announced his candidacy on 30 October and has struggled, winning only three votes in favour in his first ballot. Like Uganda’s Olara Otunnu, he was included in the informal ballot before completing the usual meeting with the General Assembly, a formality the other candidates have already completed.

How the selection actually works

Choosing a UN secretary-general is a two-step process, and the Security Council holds most of the power.

First, the 15-member Security Council votes in private straw polls until one candidate emerges with at least nine votes in favour and no veto from a permanent member. Then the Council holds a formal vote and sends its recommendation to the 193-member General Assembly, which votes to approve the choice. In practice, the Assembly almost always accepts the Council’s recommendation.

The process can be slow. When Guterres was chosen in October 2016, it took six straw polls for the Council to agree. This time, eight polls have already been held without a result, and the next round may not come quickly. Reports have suggested that further voting could slip into December, depending on the Council’s schedule under its rotating presidency.

That would leave very little time. Guterres leaves office on 31 December 2026, and the UN’s rules require a successor to be in place on 1 January 2027. If the Council cannot agree, the organisation could face the unusual situation of starting the new year without a confirmed leader — or with a rushed decision made under pressure.

What happens next

The Council is expected to keep holding straw polls until one candidate shows a strong chance of winning the formal vote. For Grynspan, the path is clear but narrow: she needs to turn at least some of her three “discourage” votes into “no opinion” or “encourage” — and, above all, she needs the permanent members to stop blocking her.

If she cannot, the Council may look for a compromise candidate — someone with fewer enemies, even if they have fewer supporters. That is how deadlocked UN races have been settled in the past: not by the most popular candidate winning, but by the least opposed candidate emerging.

For now, though, Grynspan’s lead is real and growing. She has improved her tally in the latest poll, her rivals have not gained ground, and she carries the weight of two historic firsts. The question is whether the closed-door politics of the Security Council will let the frontrunner finish the race — or whether the vetoes will force the UN to look elsewhere, with the clock running down.

FAQ

Who is leading the race for UN secretary-general?

Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica. In the eighth informal straw poll on 5 November 2026, she won 12 “encourage” votes and three “discourage” votes — her best result yet, and her seventh lead in eight polls.

What is a straw poll?

A straw poll is an informal, secret vote by the 15 members of the UN Security Council. Each member marks a candidate as “encourage”, “discourage” or “no opinion”. The results guide the Council toward a candidate it can formally recommend, but they are not binding.

Why hasn’t Grynspan been chosen if she has 12 votes?

Because a candidate needs at least nine votes in favour and no “discourage” vote from any of the five permanent members — the US, Russia, China, Britain and France. The recent ballots were not colour-coded, so it is not clear whether her three “discourage” votes came from permanent members. In the sixth poll, which was colour-coded, she received two negative votes from permanent members.

Who are the other main candidates?

Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, is second with nine votes in favour. Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett is third with eight. The UAE’s Lana Nusseibeh is fourth with seven.

When does the new secretary-general take office?

On 1 January 2027, when António Guterres’s second five-year term ends on 31 December 2026.

Has there ever been a woman UN secretary-general?

No. In the UN’s more than 80-year history, all nine secretaries-general have been men. Grynspan would be the first woman to hold the job.

Conclusion

Rebeca Grynspan’s lead in the race for UN secretary-general is now the strongest it has ever been: 12 votes in favour, three against, and seven leads in eight polls. She is the candidate most of the Security Council wants, and she would make history twice over — as the first woman and the first Latin American in decades to lead the United Nations.

But the UN’s rules give the final say to its five most powerful members, and at least one of them has been voting against her. Until those vetoes disappear, the frontrunner cannot win. With less than two months before Guterres steps down, the Council must decide soon whether to rally behind Grynspan — or start looking for someone everyone can accept.

The next straw poll will tell us which way the wind is blowing.

Sources

• Reuters — “Costa Rica’s Grynspan extends lead in informal UN chief poll, sources say” (5 November 2026): https://duke.fm/2026/11/05/costa-ricas-grynspan-extends-lead-in-informal-un-chief-poll-sources-say-3/
• The Eastleigh Voice (reporting PassBlue results) — “Costa Rica’s Grynspan extends lead in UN chief race as new entrants falter” (6 November 2026): https://eastleighvoice.co.ke/news/420615/costa-ricas-grynspan-extends-lead-in-un-chief-race-as-new-entrants-falter
• New Kerala — “Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan leads UN chief poll” (6 November 2026): https://www.newkerala.com/news/a/costa-ricas-rebeca-grynspan-leads-un-chief-poll-373.htm
• Wikipedia — “Rebeca Grynspan” (biographical background): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebeca_Grynspan

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.