2026 Is Set to Be the Second-Hottest Year on Record as El Niño Supercharges Global Warming

The year 2026 is on course to become the second-hottest year ever recorded, the European Union’s climate monitor has said, with October 2026 already confirmed as the warmest October in history.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service said in its latest monthly bulletin, published on 5 November, that 2026 still has a 20 per cent chance of tying or even beating 2024, the current record holder. Either way, the year is now virtually certain to finish more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — only the second calendar year ever to do so.

The cause is a powerful combination: the steady warming driven by human activity, plus an exceptionally strong El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean that is still getting stronger.

Forecasters warn that El Niño has not yet peaked, and that 2027 could be hotter still.

What the new figures show

October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally. Copernicus reported that the average global surface air temperature for the month was 15.35°C — 0.90°C above the 1991–2020 average for October, and 1.75°C above the pre-industrial average, defined as the years 1850 to 1900.

That beat the previous October record, set in 2023, when temperatures were 0.85°C above the 1991–2020 average. It was also the third month in a row in which global temperatures were more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The oceans tell the same story. The average sea surface temperature across the world’s oceans (excluding the polar regions) was 20.95°C in October — the highest value ever recorded for the month, and the fourth month in a row to set a record for its month.

So far this year, global temperatures from January to October place 2026 as the second-warmest year-to-date on record, behind only 2024. Copernicus estimates that the full year will finish at around 1.56°C above pre-industrial levels, just behind 2024’s 1.6°C.

“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates the Copernicus service. “An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.”

What is El Niño, and why is this one so strong?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern. Every few years, the surface waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean become much warmer than usual. That warm water releases extra heat into the atmosphere and changes weather patterns around the world. It can bring drought to some places, floods to others, and it pushes global temperatures up.

The current El Niño is unusually powerful. In October, the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region — the part of the Pacific scientists watch most closely to track El Niño — reached an all-time high of 29.94°C. That is 3.21°C above the 1991–2020 average, beating the previous record of 2.99°C set only a month earlier, in September. It also passed the peak values of the three previous very strong El Niño events, in 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16.

The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is strengthening rapidly and is expected to peak in December 2026, becoming one of the strongest events on record. It is now almost certain to continue through February 2027.

That timing matters. El Niño events usually have their biggest effect on global temperatures in the year after they peak, because the oceans release their stored heat slowly. That is why forecasters say El Niño could help make 2027 the hottest year on record.

Not every estimate agrees on exactly where 2026 will finish. Carbon Brief, which averages six different global temperature records, gave 2026 a 67 per cent chance of beating 2024, while Copernicus, using its own ERA5 dataset, put the chance at 20 per cent. The difference comes down to the datasets and methods used — but all of them agree that 2026 will be either the warmest or the second-warmest year ever measured.

Why 1.5°C matters

In 2015, nearly every country in the world agreed in Paris to try to keep global warming” well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. That 1.5°C figure is not a random number. Scientists say that beyond it, the risks of deadly heatwaves, crop failures, rising seas and collapsing ecosystems grow sharply.

It is important to understand what the 1.5°C figure means. The Paris target is about the long-term average over many years, not a single year. One year above 1.5°C does not formally break the agreement. But 2026 will be the second calendar year in a row, after 2024, to pass the mark — and the average temperature for the four years from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to top 1.5°C.

In September 2026, the United Nations said the long-term 1.5°C target would be missed within a matter of years.

Scientists say the priority now is to cut greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels as fast as possible, to limit how long and how far temperatures overshoot 1.5°C, and to bring them back down again.

A year of extreme weather

The record heat has not been an abstract number. It has shown up in real weather around the world.

The Copernicus bulletin comes after a year marked by deadly floods in Nepal, searing heatwaves across Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia. In October, the West Antarctic region recorded some of the largest temperature anomalies anywhere on Earth — more than 7°C above average, and up to 11°C above average in some areas. Warm air pushed south across the Drake Passage towards the Antarctic Peninsula, in a pattern scientists link to El Niño.

Europe has felt the heat directly. The summer of 2026 brought long heatwaves across the continent, drying out parks and fields — the kind of parched, brown landscape that has become a familiar sight in British summers too.

And the warming is melting ice far beyond the poles: in late October, scientists confirmed that Slovenia’s Triglav glacier, on the country’s highest mountain, had lost its last patch of ice after a scorching summer.

What it means for Pakistan

For Pakistan, the news matters more than for most countries. Pakistan is among the countries most exposed to climate change, even though it produces only a small share of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Hotter years mean longer and more intense heatwaves in Pakistan’s plains, heavier monsoon rains, faster melting of the glaciers in the north that feed the Indus River, and more pressure on farms, water supplies and power grids.

The country saw the scale of the risk in 2022, when catastrophic floods affected more than 33 million people.

The same warming trend is also behind the thick smog that settles over Lahore and other cities each winter, as changing weather patterns trap pollution close to the ground. Findivoza recently reported on Delhi’s toxic winter air returning ahead of Diwali — a problem shared across the region.

The human cost of a warming world is already visible. A recent United Nations warning reported that 90 million displaced people now live in climate danger zones, exposed to floods, droughts and extreme heat.

For countries like Pakistan, every fraction of a degree of extra warming adds to that danger.

What happens next

World leaders meet on Monday, 9 November, for the United Nations’ two-week COP31 climate summit in Türkiye. The talks come as the Copernicus figures pile pressure on governments to speed up cuts to emissions and to deliver more help to the countries hit hardest by climate change.

The short-term outlook is not comforting. With El Niño expected to peak in December and linger into early 2027, scientists expect a run of record-warm months. Carbon Brief projects that 2027 could reach around 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, with a 96 per cent chance of setting a new annual record.

But the longer story is not fixed. How hot the coming years get depends on how quickly the world cuts emissions from coal, oil and gas. Every year of delay adds heat that cannot easily be taken back — and every step taken now limits how bad the overshoot becomes.

Frequently asked questions

Is 2026 the hottest year on record?

Probably not — but it is very close. Copernicus says 2026 is most likely to finish as the second-hottest year on record, behind 2024, with a 20 per cent chance of tying or beating the 2024 record. Other estimates, which average several temperature records together, give 2026 a higher chance of taking the top spot. Either way, it will be one of the two warmest years ever measured.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural warming of the surface waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean that happens every few years. It temporarily raises global temperatures and changes weather patterns worldwide, increasing the risk of drought in some regions and flooding in others. It adds extra heat on top of the long-term warming caused by human activity.

Does one year above 1.5°C mean the Paris Agreement has failed?

No — not formally. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target refers to the long-term average over many years, not a single year. But 2026 is the second calendar year to pass 1.5°C, and the four-year average from 2023 to 2026 is also expected to exceed it. The United Nations said in September that the long-term target will be missed within a matter of years unless emissions fall fast.

Why was October 2026 so hot?

October 2026 was the warmest October ever recorded, at 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels. Two things combined: the long-term warming from greenhouse gases, and an exceptionally strong El Niño that set an all-time temperature record in the key Pacific monitoring region. Ocean temperatures were also at record levels for the month.

Could 2027 be even hotter?

Yes — forecasters say so. El Niño usually has its biggest effect on global temperatures in the year after it peaks, and this El Niño is expected to peak in December 2026. Carbon Brief projects 2027 could reach around 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, with a 96 per cent chance of being the hottest year on record.

Conclusion

The Copernicus bulletin leaves little room for doubt: 2026 is set to be the second-hottest year in recorded history, October was the warmest October ever measured, and the world is virtually certain to finish the year more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the second time.

The immediate driver is an exceptionally strong El Niño, still building towards its December peak. But the deeper cause is the steady warming from greenhouse gas emissions, which turns a natural warm event into a record-breaking one.

As governments gather in Türkiye for COP31, the question is no longer whether the planet is warming — the thermometers have answered that. The question is how fast the world acts to limit the damage, for countries like Pakistan that face the sharpest consequences, and for everyone else too.

Sources

• Copernicus Climate Change Service (primary source — October 2026 bulletin): https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-october-2026
• phys.org: https://phys.org/news/2026-11-hottest-year-eu.html
• The News: https://www.thenews.pk/print/1447342-2026-most-likely-to-be-second-hottest-year-on-record-eu
• Devdiscourse: https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/4002725-after-warmest-october-on-record-2026-is-likely-to-exceed-15-c-above-pre-industrial-level-says-eu-climate-service
• ManyMinded: https://www.manyminded.com/a/2026-on-course-for-a-near-record-year-7qxjv

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.