Oil Prices Plunge as Brent Crude Falls Below $95 After US Midterm Elections

Oil prices have fallen sharply. Brent crude, the benchmark that sets the price of most of the world’s oil, dropped more than 8 percent in a single day and settled below $95 a barrel for the first time in more than two months. The fall came hours after the Democratic Party won control of both chambers of the United States Congress in the midterm elections, and traders bet that the result makes an end to the war with Iran more likely.

It was the steepest one-day fall for oil since April. Brent has now lost about a fifth of its value in less than a week. For drivers, businesses and governments, the drop brings some relief after weeks of rising fuel costs. But analysts warn that the war is not over, and prices could rise again just as fast.

At a glance

What happened: Brent crude fell $8.98, or 8.7 percent, to settle at $94.62 a barrel on Wednesday, 4 November 2026. US crude, known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), fell $7.97, or 8.3 percent, to $88.12 a barrel. Both closed at their lowest levels since 31 August.

Why it matters: Oil prices shape the cost of petrol, diesel, transport, food and heating around the world. A fall of this size, if it lasts, eases pressure on household budgets and on countries that import oil, including Pakistan.

What happens next: Traders will watch whether Washington moves towards talks with Iran, whether the fighting escalates again, and what the next set of US stockpile figures shows. The fall continued into Thursday, with Brent slipping to about $93.63 in Asian trading.

The numbers behind the fall

The scale of Wednesday’s move was striking. Brent fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since 7 October, and kept falling through the session. At one point it was down about 10 percent and touched its lowest level since 4 September. WTI also dropped below $90.

The fall was the third daily drop in a row. On Monday, 2 November, Brent had already fallen 7.63 percent to $104.77, its biggest daily fall since late July, while WTI dropped 7.36 percent to $96.46. Taken together, the two benchmarks have lost more than 14 percent this week, according to CNBC.

That reverses a sharp rise. Brent traded as high as about $118 a barrel last Friday, and it had gained more than 10 percent in October as the war pushed up the risk premium — the extra amount traders pay because they fear supplies could be cut off. At about $94, Brent is roughly a fifth lower than it was less than a week ago.

The selling continued on Thursday. In Asian trading, Brent was around $93.63 by mid-morning in Beijing, down about another 1 percent, while WTI was near $87.51.

Why traders sold: the election and the Iran war

The trigger was politics. On Tuesday, 3 November, voters in the United States delivered a sweeping defeat to President Donald Trump’s Republican Party, handing the Democrats control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Investors bet that the shift in power could hasten the end of the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The reasoning is simple. A president who has lost Congress has less freedom to keep fighting a costly war, and more reason to look for a deal. Two sources close to Gulf government circles told Reuters that Mr Trump’s weakened position gave him greater reason to pursue a negotiated settlement, making a full-scale assault on Iran less likely.

Mr Trump himself fed that expectation. He told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran, and on Wednesday he acknowledged that the Iran war had played a role in his party’s defeat. Vice President JD Vance went further. In a post on X, he blamed the war entirely for the Republicans’ losses, saying it was the reason the party lost both chambers, and questioned whether the war had been worth it.

“The Democratic control of Congress could also tighten US military spending in the Middle East and further heighten the possibility of a peace deal sooner than later,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at the US financial firm BOK Financial. He added that larger crude exports from the Middle East, together with Mr Trump’s comments, were adding to the pressure on prices.

The selling sped up after Mr Vance’s post. Prices were already down 2 to 3 percent earlier on Wednesday. Between 10:40 a.m. and noon in New York, Brent shed close to another 7 percent.

What the market is betting on — and why it may be wrong

Traders are betting that the war premium will keep draining out of the price. That premium built up because the war threatened oil supplies from the Gulf, above all through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a large share of the world’s seaborne oil passes. If the war ends, or even pauses, that risk fades and prices fall back towards where supply and demand alone would put them.

There are signs the market has already moved that way. JPMorgan estimates that the global oil market returned to a supply surplus of about 1.4 million barrels per day in October — meaning the world was producing more oil than it was using. Shipping data from Vortexa, cited by Reuters, showed Gulf exports of crude, condensate and refined products averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September but still roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels.

But the bet on peace is far from certain, and several analysts urged caution. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran and the United States remain far from a deal to end the war. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a written statement that US hostility would persist regardless of which party was in power. Qatar has stepped up mediation efforts to avert a renewed escalation, which itself shows how fragile the situation remains.

“The elections are giving bears a reason to cast doubt on a continuation in Iran. I’m more concerned that we can see an escalation in Iran sooner than a resolution,” said Carl Larry, who leads the trading and North America risk team at the energy consultancy Enverus.

Reuters also reported that Gulf analysts warned a deal that lets Iran claim a clear victory, leaving Mr Trump looking defeated, could provoke recklessness as readily as restraint. And Yemen’s Houthis said they had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, although there was no confirmation from Saudi authorities.

In short, the market has priced in a calmer future. If the fighting flares up again, or if talks collapse, the war premium could return quickly — just as it built up quickly in October.

The supply picture: stockpiles, pipelines and forecasts

The election was not the only news moving prices. US government figures released on Wednesday showed American crude oil stockpiles fell by 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels in the week ended 30 October. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected stockpiles to rise by 877,000 barrels, so the fall was a surprise. It was also the fifth weekly fall in a row. Normally, falling stockpiles push prices up, because they suggest demand is strong. That they did not on Wednesday shows how powerfully the election result drove trading.

US government data also showed diesel stocks falling below 100 million barrels, their lowest level since 2003 — a reminder that while crude is getting cheaper, the fuels that move trucks, trains and farm machinery remain in tight supply.

There were also longer-term signals. Bloomberg reported that the United Arab Emirates is considering building a third oil pipeline that would deliver crude outside the Strait of Hormuz, as the country aims to sharply reduce its dependence on the waterway. If built, it would make Gulf oil less vulnerable to any closure of the strait.

Forecasts, however, show how uncertain the outlook is. Just two days before the fall, Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $105 a barrel, up from $90, and lifted its 2027 average forecast to $88 from $80. That was before Wednesday’s drop, and it underlines a basic point: even the big banks are guessing, and the war has made oil prices swing far more than usual. Brent has moved between roughly $70 and $120 a barrel since just before the war began.

What cheaper oil means for ordinary people

For most people, the oil price matters because it feeds into the cost of almost everything. Petrol and diesel come directly from crude, and transport costs feed into food prices, shop prices and heating bills.

In the United States, the average petrol price was $4.12 a gallon on Wednesday morning, according to NBC News. If crude stays lower, pump prices should follow, though the fall takes days or weeks to reach filling stations.

For Pakistan, cheaper oil is good news. The country imports almost all of its oil, so a lower world price cuts the import bill and eases pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Petrol in Pakistan had already fallen to Rs362 a litre this week after a third price cut in seven days. If Brent stays near current levels, there is room for further relief at the pump, although the government also sets prices through taxes and the petroleum levy, so the full drop in world prices does not always reach drivers.

Businesses that use a lot of fuel — transport companies, factories, farmers — also benefit. But the relief is only real if the fall lasts. A renewed escalation in the Gulf could send prices back up within days, which is why the finance ministry and the central bank will be watching the market as closely as traders are.

What happens next

Three things will decide where oil prices go from here.

The first is politics in Washington. A Democratic Congress can constrain military spending and push for a negotiated end to the war, but it cannot end the war on its own. What Mr Trump does next — whether he leans towards talks or towards escalation — matters more than the election result alone.

The second is diplomacy. Qatar’s mediation, and any direct or indirect contact between Washington and Tehran, will be watched closely. Any sign of a deal would likely push prices down further. Any sign of collapse, or a new attack, would likely push them up.

The third is the physical market. Weekly US stockpile figures, Gulf export volumes and the state of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will show whether the world’s oil supply is actually recovering. The strait remains largely closed to commercial shipping, and until that changes, the risk of a supply shock has not gone away.

For now, the market has made its judgement: the election changed the politics of the war, and the war premium is coming out of the price. Whether that judgement survives contact with events is the question that will decide what drivers pay in the weeks ahead.

Frequently asked questions

What is Brent crude?

Brent crude is the main international benchmark for oil prices. It is a type of light, sweet crude oil from the North Sea, and the price of most of the world’s oil is set in relation to it. When news reports say “oil prices fell”, they usually mean Brent.

What is WTI?

WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate. It is the main US benchmark, produced in the United States. It usually trades a few dollars below Brent because it reflects American supply and demand more directly.

Why did oil prices fall so sharply on 4 November?

Traders bet that the Democrats’ victory in the US midterm elections makes an end to the US-Israeli war with Iran more likely. A weaker president facing a Democratic Congress has more reason to seek a deal and less freedom to escalate, so the market reduced the “war premium” — the extra price charged because of the risk of supply disruption.

How far have oil prices fallen?

Brent fell from about $118 a barrel last Friday to $94.62 on Wednesday, a drop of roughly a fifth in less than a week. It has fallen more than 14 percent this week alone. WTI fell to $88.12.

Will petrol prices fall too?

Probably, if crude stays low — but not immediately and not by the full amount. It takes days or weeks for cheaper crude to reach filling stations, and governments add taxes and levies on top of the crude price. In the US, average petrol was $4.12 a gallon on Wednesday morning. In Pakistan, petrol had already fallen to Rs362 a litre this week.

Could oil prices rise again?

Yes. The war is not over, Iran and the US are still far from a deal according to a senior Iranian official, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial shipping. Any escalation could send prices back up quickly.

Sources

• Reuters, via BusinessWorld: “Oil slumps after midterm election rebuke to Trump raises bets on Iran war exit” — https://bworldonline.com/world/2026/11/05/791628/oil-slumps-after-midterm-election-rebuke-to-trump-raises-bets-on-iran-war-exit/
• CNBC, via AVeNews: “Brent crude futures fall 8.67% to $94.62 a barrel” — https://www.avenews.am/en/posts/oil-settlements-november-4-brent-wti-fall
• XTB: “Oil suffers sharpest fall since April (-9%)” — https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/oil-suffers-sharpest-fall-since-april-9
• EBC: “Oil Prices Post Biggest Drop Since July as US–Iran Peace Hopes Ease Supply Fears” (2 November fall and Goldman Sachs forecasts) — https://www.ebc.com/forex/oil-prices-biggest-drop-since-july-2026

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.