Mississippi Senate Race Still Uncalled as Democrat Scott Colom Leads Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith by 2,574 Votes

Four days after Americans voted in the 2026 midterm elections, one of the biggest surprises of the night is still without a winner. In Mississippi, one of the most Republican states in the country, Democrat Scott Colom is leading Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by 2,574 votes in a US Senate race that no news organisation has yet called.

The result matters far beyond Mississippi. Democrats have already won control of both chambers of Congress, but the final size of their Senate majority depends on this race and one other still being counted in Alaska. And if Colom holds on, it would be one of the most remarkable upsets in modern American politics: Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1982, and Donald Trump won the state with about 61 percent of the vote in 2024.

Here is where the Mississippi Senate race stands, what votes are still to be counted, and what happens next.

The count so far: Colom ahead by 2,574 votes

As of Friday afternoon, 6 November, the Associated Press count showed Colom on 467,930 votes (49.1 percent) and Hyde-Smith on 465,356 votes (48.8 percent), a lead of 2,574 votes out of more than 950,000 cast. About 97 percent of the expected vote had been counted, and the AP still listed the race as too early to call.

The lead has moved in one direction ever since election night. Just after midnight on Wednesday, Colom was ahead by only 28 votes in unofficial returns. By Wednesday afternoon his lead was 65 votes. By Wednesday night it had grown to 1,138 votes. On Friday morning it passed 2,000 votes, reaching 2,010 by late morning, and by 5pm on Friday it stood at 2,574.

That is ten counts in a row that have widened Colom’s lead, according to the Mississippi Free Press, which has tracked every update. Each new batch of counted ballots has added to the Democrat’s advantage rather than cutting it.

It is important to be clear about what these numbers are. They are unofficial counts reported by the Associated Press, not the official certified results. No news outlet has called the race, and the final result will only be known once Mississippi’s counties finish counting and certify their totals.

Who are the candidates?

Scott Colom is the Democratic challenger. He is a district attorney for Mississippi’s 16th Circuit Court District, and he ran a campaign that few outside the state expected to be competitive. Cindy Hyde-Smith is the Republican incumbent, first appointed to the Senate in 2018 and described by Al Jazeera as a staunch ally of President Donald Trump. A third candidate, independent Ty Pinkins, is also on the ballot and has taken a small share of the vote.

Colom’s campaign always said its best votes would come late. Mississippi counts mail-in absentee ballots and affidavit ballots — votes cast by people whose eligibility has to be checked first — after the ballots cast on election day. Those late-counted ballots have broken heavily for Colom, which is why his lead has kept growing as the count has gone on.

What votes are still to be counted?

Thousands of ballots are still outstanding, and they are far more numerous than the 2,574-vote gap between the candidates. That is why the race cannot be called yet.

There are two main groups of uncounted votes:

Mail-in absentee ballots. Mississippi’s Secretary of State, Michael Watson, said about 3,600 mail-in ballots were still to be tallied. Under Mississippi law, mail-in ballots postmarked by election day can still arrive and be counted in the days after the vote. These ballots have until 10 November to arrive.

Affidavit ballots. These are provisional ballots cast by voters whose eligibility needs to be verified, for example because their name was not on the voter list at their polling place. The exact number is unknown, and the Associated Press estimated on Friday afternoon that about 30,000 votes in total were still to be counted. Counties have until late next week to finish verifying them.

The affidavit ballots counted so far have strongly favoured Colom. In Oktibbeha County, he won the affidavit ballots by 401 votes to 96, a margin of 80 percent to 19 percent, in a county that Trump won. In Lafayette County, he took 142 of 207 valid affidavit votes, against 60 for Hyde-Smith and five for Pinkins. His overall share in Lafayette County was 49.4 percent to Hyde-Smith’s 48.3 percent, so the affidavit ballots there were considerably better for him than the county as a whole.

The biggest batch still to come may be from Hinds County, which includes the state capital, Jackson. Hinds is a majority-Black county where Colom leads the overall count by 79 percent to 19 percent, and its officials had not yet released any affidavit ballot figures by Friday. If Hinds County’s affidavit ballots follow the county’s overall pattern, they would be expected to add to Colom’s lead.

Why this race matters

The first reason is the size of the Democratic majority in the Senate. Democrats have already secured at least 54 of the Senate’s 100 seats, flipping seven Republican-held seats in the midterms, according to election tallies. Two races remain uncalled: Mississippi and Alaska. If Democrats win both, their majority would grow to 56 seats. If they lose both, it stays at 54. The final number shapes how much room the party has to pass legislation and confirm appointments when the new Congress meets on 3 January.

The second reason is what a Colom win would mean for Mississippi itself. The state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1982, when John Stennis was last re-elected. Mississippi is one of the most reliably Republican states in America: Trump won it with about 61 percent of the vote in 2024. A Democratic victory there, even by a few thousand votes, would be a political earthquake and would raise serious questions inside the Republican Party about its standing after the midterm losses.

The third reason is the signal it sends about the count itself. Colom’s lead has grown steadily as mail-in and affidavit ballots have been counted, which is the opposite of what usually happens to a challenger in a close race. His campaign’s argument all along was that the votes counted last would be his votes. So far, the count has proved him right.

For Hyde-Smith, the path back is narrow but not closed. She would need the remaining affidavit ballots to break her way in large numbers, something they have not done so far in any county that has reported them. Her campaign and the Mississippi Republican Party are already arguing over the affidavit ballots, and lawyers on both sides are watching the verification process closely.

What happens next: the key dates

The race will not be decided this weekend. Mississippi’s process gives counties time to finish counting, and the calendar is fixed by state law:

• 10 November: the deadline for late-arriving mail-in ballots postmarked by election day to be received and counted.
• 13 November: counties must send their certified results to the Secretary of State’s office.
• 3 December: the Secretary of State formally declares the final results.

One thing that will not happen is a recount. Mississippi has no recount law, so neither candidate can simply ask for the votes to be counted again. Any challenge to the result would have to go through the courts.

That makes the next week of counting decisive. Every batch of affidavit ballots from Hinds County and the other counties still counting will move the margin one way or the other, and with about 30,000 votes still to be counted, the 2,574-vote lead is far from safe.

The other race still to be decided: Alaska

Mississippi is one of two Senate races still uncalled. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan by 637 votes, according to the Associated Press, with roughly a quarter of the votes still uncounted.

Alaska’s count will take even longer. The state uses ranked-choice voting, under which voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate passes 50 percent, the ranked-choice tabulation will not be published until 15 days after the election, on 18 November. A third candidate, retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan, has taken about 3,600 votes, which could matter in the ranked-choice count.

Together, the two races will decide whether the Democratic Senate majority is 54, 55 or 56 seats.

Frequently asked questions

Has the Mississippi Senate race been called?

No. As of Friday evening, 6 November, no news organisation had called the race. The Associated Press listed it as too early to call.

Who is leading?

Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by 2,574 votes, 467,930 to 465,356, according to the Associated Press count from Friday afternoon.

How many votes are still to be counted?

About 30,000, according to an Associated Press estimate on Friday. That includes roughly 3,600 mail-in absentee ballots and an unknown number of affidavit ballots that still need to be verified.

When will we know the winner?

Counties must certify their results by 13 November, and the Secretary of State will declare the final result on 3 December. The outcome could become clear earlier if the remaining ballots move the margin decisively in one direction.

Can there be a recount?

No. Mississippi has no recount law, so a candidate cannot request one. A challenge would have to be made through the courts.

Why is this race such a big surprise?

Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982, and Donald Trump won the state with about 61 percent of the vote in 2024. A Democratic win would be one of the biggest upsets of the 2026 midterms.

Conclusion

Four days after the polls closed, the Mississippi Senate race is still too close to call, and it is getting closer to a historic result. Scott Colom’s lead has grown with every count, from 28 votes on election night to 2,574 votes on Friday afternoon, powered by mail-in and affidavit ballots that have broken his way. But about 30,000 votes remain to be counted, far more than the gap between the two candidates, and the biggest remaining batch is expected from Hinds County, where Colom is strongest.

The next few days will decide whether Mississippi elects its first Democratic senator in more than four decades, and whether the Democratic majority in the new Senate is 54, 55 or 56 seats. Until the counties certify their results, the only honest answer is the one the Associated Press gives: too early to call.

Sources

• Associated Press, 2026 election results: U.S. Senate, Mississippi, 2026: https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/?ap_doc=ap%2Frg1%2FWyJhcC92Mi8yMDI2MTEwMy9sLzI2NjkyL01TL3MiLFsiMTY5MzE4IiwiMjg1MjkiXV0
• Mississippi Free Press, “Scott Colom’s Lead Grows to 2,574 as Cindy Hyde-Smith’s Paths Dim”, 7 November 2026: https://www.mississippifreepress.org/rolling-cov-entry/scott-coloms-lead-grows-to-2498-as-cindy-hyde-smiths-paths-dim-in-mississippis-us-senate-race/
• Mississippi Free Press, liveblog: Mississippi’s 2026 U.S. Senate election results, 2026: https://www.mississippifreepress.org/liveblog-mississippis-2026-u-s-senate-election-results/
• Al Jazeera, “What’s delaying the US Senate election results in Mississippi and Alaska?”, 5 November 2026: https://aljazeeranews-3fuh52rgrl.edgeone.app/news/2026/11/5/whats-delaying-us-midterm-election-calls-in-mississippi-and-alaska

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.