Alaska Senate Race Too Close to Call: Peltola Leads Sullivan by 637 Votes as Ranked-Choice Count Looms

Four days after Americans voted in the 2026 midterm elections, one of the closest Senate races in the country is still without a winner. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by just 637 votes, with about a quarter of the expected vote still to be counted and a ranked-choice count scheduled for 18 November that could decide the seat.

The Associated Press lists the race as “too early to call”. Its latest count, updated on 6 November, puts Peltola at 102,962 first-choice votes, or 48.2%, against Sullivan’s 102,325, or 47.9%. About 74% of the expected vote has been counted.

The lead has already changed hands once. On Wednesday morning, Sullivan was ahead by 1,677 votes. By Wednesday afternoon, Peltola had moved in front by 626 votes. On Thursday the count inched forward again, and her lead grew slightly to 637 votes. With so many ballots still outstanding, the lead could flip again before the count is finished.

The count so far

Alaska counts votes slowly, and this race shows why. The state is vast, many voters live in remote communities, and mailed ballots can arrive for days after election day. Alaska accepts mailed ballots postmarked by election day for up to 10 days after the vote – 15 days for overseas voters – so the count will keep growing well into November.

Here is where the race stands, according to the Associated Press count:

• Mary Peltola (Democrat): 102,962 votes, 48.2%
• Dan Sullivan (Republican, incumbent): 102,325 votes, 47.9%
• Peltola’s lead: 637 votes
• Share of expected vote counted: about 74%

Two smaller candidates hold the balance of the vote. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher from Petersburg who shares the senator’s name and is not related to him, has about 3,600 votes, or 1.68%. Republican Gerald Heikes has 4,821 votes, or 2.25%.

That matters because the namesake candidate’s vote alone is more than five times the gap between the two leaders. In a race this tight, every small group of votes counts.

Both candidates have warned their supporters to be patient. Sullivan told his supporters on election night that they faced a long night and probably some long weeks as the campaign waited on rural and mailed ballots. Peltola said the same in her own way: “The results are not going to be fast, but Alaskans are patient. It won’t be hours. It won’t be days. It will be weeks.”

Why nobody has won yet: ranked-choice voting explained

Alaska does not award a Senate seat to whoever finishes first. It uses ranked-choice voting, a system in which voters rank the candidates in order of preference instead of picking just one.

Here is how it works in simple terms:

1. First choices are counted. If one candidate wins more than half of the first-choice votes, that candidate wins the seat.
2. If nobody reaches half, the last-placed candidate is eliminated. The ballots of voters who picked that candidate are then transferred to whoever they ranked next.
3. The process repeats until one candidate has a majority.

Neither Peltola nor Sullivan is above 50% of first-choice votes, so the ranked-choice count is expected to decide the seat. That count cannot run until the first-choice count is complete, because mailed ballots are still arriving. Alaska’s Division of Elections has scheduled the ranked-choice tabulation for 18 November, with further count updates on 10 and 13 November. Official results are expected on 25 November.

In practice, this means the second choices of the roughly 8,400 people who voted for the two minor candidates could decide who goes to Washington. Voters who backed Daniel J. Sullivan or Gerald Heikes ranked a second choice on their ballots, and those second choices will be counted on 18 November.

Alaska voters also decided a ballot measure on the voting system itself. Measure 2, which would repeal ranked-choice voting, was trailing 48.1% to 51.9% with about 73% of the vote counted, according to NBC News figures — meaning voters looked set to keep the system.

The second Dan Sullivan

The race drew national attention long before election day because of the other Sullivan on the ballot. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired schoolteacher, shares the incumbent senator’s name. He is not the incumbent and is not related to him.

Republicans have alleged that the retired teacher was recruited as a spoiler to confuse voters. Alaska’s highest court rejected that argument when it refused to remove him from the ballot.

The dispute then moved to the federal courts. The US Justice Department sued in Alaska, seeking to pause certification of the race and to have ballots cast for Daniel J. Sullivan set aside and investigated. On Sunday 1 November, US District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the case, ruling that the government lacked standing to bring it. The Justice Department has appealed to the 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals.

Separately, the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into the recruitment allegations and has sent letters to more than 20 people this week. Attorney General Todd Blanche has cast doubt on the ranked-choice system and called for ballots to be preserved. The FBI had earlier visited donors of the second Dan Sullivan as a Senate inquiry widened.

None of this has changed the count itself. The ballots are being counted under Alaska law, and the courts have so far refused to stop the process.

Trump weighs in

President Donald Trump intervened in the race on Thursday 5 November, calling for the votes cast for the two minor candidates to be handed to Sullivan. Alaska law has no such step. Second choices count only through the ranked-choice tabulation on 18 November, and only for voters who ranked a further choice.

Trump’s intervention fits a wider pattern since the midterms. The elections were a heavy defeat for the president and the Republican Party: Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, and the president has since replaced his White House chief of staff and blamed the war in Iran for the losses. In Alaska, the closeness of the race is striking in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024.

Why the race still matters

Control of the Senate no longer rests on Alaska. Democrats have already secured their majority — the Associated Press tally has Democrats and the independents who vote with them at 54 seats to 44, with two races still counting. Alaska will decide the size of that majority, not whether it exists.

That still matters. A bigger majority gives the incoming Senate leadership more room to pass laws, confirm judges, and survive absences or dissent within its own ranks. If Peltola wins in Alaska and Democrat Scott Colom holds on in Mississippi — the only other uncalled Senate race, where he led Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by just 43 votes in the count reported on 4 November — Democrats would hold a 56-44 advantage.

For Alaska itself, the race is also a test of the state’s independent streak. Its other senator, Lisa Murkowski, famously won re-election as a write-in candidate in 2010 after losing her party’s primary. Peltola, a centrist who served one term in the House of Representatives from 2022 to 2025, has already defied expectations by running level with an incumbent first elected in 2014 in a state that usually votes Republican.

What happens next

The calendar for the Alaska race is now fixed, and it runs for weeks:

• 10 November: The Division of Elections releases its next count update, adding early votes and challenged ballots.
• 13 November: A further count update.
• 18 November: The ranked-choice tabulation, if no candidate has won a majority of first-choice votes. This is the day the seat is likely to be decided.
• 25 November: Official results are expected, and the result is certified.

Until then, the 637-vote lead is a snapshot, not a result. Thousands of ballots are still to arrive, the ranked-choice count has not begun, and the courts are still hearing arguments about the second Sullivan on the ballot. Alaska’s Senate seat, like the Mississippi race, will be settled in slow motion — and the final answer may not come until the end of the month.

Frequently asked questions

Who is leading the Alaska Senate race?

Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 637 votes in the latest count: 102,962 votes (48.2%) to 102,325 (47.9%), with about 74% of the expected vote counted. The Associated Press lists the race as too early to call.

Why hasn’t the Alaska Senate race been called?

Two reasons. First, about a quarter of the vote is still uncounted, because Alaska accepts mailed ballots postmarked by election day — up to 10 days after the vote, 15 days for overseas voters. Second, Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, so if no candidate wins more than half of first-choice votes, second choices must be counted. That tabulation is scheduled for 18 November.

What is ranked-choice voting?

Voters rank candidates in order of preference. If nobody wins more than half of first-choice votes, the last-placed candidate is eliminated and their voters’ second choices are counted instead. The process repeats until one candidate has a majority.

Who is the second Dan Sullivan?

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher from Petersburg, is an unaffiliated candidate who shares the incumbent senator’s name. He has about 3,600 votes — more than five times the gap between the leaders. Republicans allege he was recruited to confuse voters; Alaska’s highest court refused to remove him from the ballot, and a federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to pause certification.

Does the Alaska race decide control of the Senate?

No. Democrats have already won control of both chambers of Congress. Alaska decides the size of the Democratic majority, not its existence. The only other uncalled Senate race is in Mississippi.

When will we know the winner?

The ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for 18 November, and official results are expected on 25 November.

Conclusion

Four days after the midterms, Alaska’s Senate race is separated by 637 votes out of more than 213,000 cast — and the winner will probably not be known for weeks. Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan, but a quarter of the vote is still to be counted, and the ranked-choice tabulation on 18 November will decide the seat if neither candidate reaches a majority.

The race has already produced a flipped lead, a namesake candidate holding five times the margin, a dismissed Justice Department lawsuit, a criminal investigation, and an intervention by the president. What it has not yet produced is a winner. For that, Alaska will have to wait — as its candidates warned on election night, it will be weeks.

Sources

• The Orbit Post, “Alaska Senate Race Too Close to Call, Peltola Leads by 637”, updated 6 November 2026: https://theorbitpostnews.us/alaska-senate-race-sullivan-leads-peltola-uncalled/
• QNC News, “Alaska Senate Race Stays Undecided as Ranked Choice Count Set for November 18”, 6 November 2026: https://qncnews.com/2026/11/06/alaska-senate-race-stays-undecided-as-ranked-choice-count-set-for-november-18/
• Juneau Empire, “Alaska’s US Senate race a tossup, with many absentee and early votes to be counted”, 4 November 2026: https://www.juneauempire.com/2026/11/04/alaskas-us-senate-race-a-tossup-with-many-absentee-and-early-votes-to-be-counted/
• Workers Rights News, “Peltola leads Sullivan by a fraction of a point as DOJ takes its Alaska lawsuit to the 9th Circuit”, 4 November 2026: https://www.workersrights.news/alaska-senate-near-tie-doj-appeal-certification-lawsuit/
• Associated Press, election results: U.S. Senate, Alaska, accessed 7 November 2026: https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/?ap_doc=ap%2Frg1%2FWyJhcC92Mi8yMDI2MTEwMy9sLzMwNzkvQUsvcyIsWyI2NDI2MiIsIjcwNzE4Il1d

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.