Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Set to Fall for the First Time in Five Years — But Total CO2 Still Hits a Record High

For the first time in five years, the world’s carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to fall. That is the headline finding of the Global Carbon Budget 2026, published on Tuesday, 10 November 2026, as world leaders gather for the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey.

But the good news comes with a large warning. The fall is tiny, it is partly caused by war rather than climate policy, and total emissions — including the carbon released when forests are cut and peatlands burn — are still expected to reach a record high this year.

In plain terms: the world has taken a small step in the right direction, but it is nowhere near the big, lasting cuts that scientists say are needed to stop the planet from warming further.

What the new report says

The Global Carbon Budget is an annual check-up on the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. It is produced by the Global Carbon Project, a team of more than 140 scientists from over 90 institutions around the world. The 2026 edition, the 21st in the series, was published in the journal Earth System Science Data and presented at COP31 on Tuesday.

Its main finding is that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to fall by about 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes.

That may sound small, and it is. But it matters because emissions from fossil fuels have risen almost every year for decades. The last time they fell was in 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic shut down economies around the world. Before that, the last big falls came during the global financial crisis in 2009 and the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1992.

In 2025, fossil fuel emissions hit a record high of 38.4 billion tonnes, after rising 1.2% on the year before. On average over the past ten years, they rose by about 0.9% a year. A fall — even a small one — breaks that pattern.

The researchers are careful, though. Their projection comes with a wide range of uncertainty: the real figure could be anywhere from a fall of 1.5% to a rise of 0.6%. That means a small increase in emissions cannot be ruled out yet. The researchers themselves describe the picture as a flatline, not a decline — the projected fall is so small that it is statistically indistinguishable from zero.

Why are emissions falling? Two very different reasons

The fall in fossil fuel emissions has two main causes, and they could hardly be more different.

The first is war. The war in Iran, which began in February 2026, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which about a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes — sent oil prices soaring. Petrol and diesel prices in the United States, China and the European Union were 10% to 50% higher than in 2025, depending on the fuel and the period. When fuel becomes that expensive, people and businesses use less of it.

Emissions from oil are projected to fall by 1.9% in 2026 — one of the largest annual falls on record outside the pandemic year. That single drop, worth about 243 million tonnes of CO2, is the main reason total fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall at all. The report links most of the oil decline to the higher prices and reduced output that followed the Iran conflict and the Hormuz closure.

The second cause is cleaner energy. Solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles are growing fast, and they are starting to replace fossil fuels in a real way. Research published alongside the report in the journal Nature Climate Change finds that the growth in solar, wind and electric cars now offsets around two-thirds of the emissions that would otherwise come from rising energy demand.

Electric vehicles alone accounted for around a fifth of the overall drop in oil emissions in 2026. That is a sign that the shift away from petrol and diesel cars is no longer a small, niche trend — it is big enough to show up in global figures.

But the researchers are clear that clean energy is not yet growing fast enough to push global emissions into a lasting decline on its own. This year’s fall depends heavily on an oil price shock caused by war. If oil prices fall back, or if the conflict eases, emissions could rise again.

The catch: total emissions still hit a record

Here is the part that spoils the good news. The 0.4% fall covers only fossil fuels and cement. When you add in emissions from land-use change — cutting down forests, draining peatlands and setting fires to clear land — total global CO2 emissions are projected to reach a record high of 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, up from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.

Land-use emissions are expected to rise to 5.1 billion tonnes in 2026, up from 4.4 billion tonnes in 2025. The report blames peat fires, almost all started by people, and forest damage in Southeast Asia, made worse by dry conditions linked to a strong El Nino — the natural weather pattern that is also pushing global temperatures higher.

If land-use emissions had stayed at 2025 levels, total emissions would have fallen slightly this year, to around 42.6 billion tonnes. Instead, the fires and forest losses wiped out the gain from fossil fuels.

This is an important lesson. Cutting emissions from power stations, cars and factories is only half the job. Protecting forests and peatlands matters just as much, because when they burn or are cleared, they release carbon that took decades or centuries to store.

Which countries are up, and which are down?

The global picture hides big differences between countries.

China, the world’s biggest emitter, is responsible for about 32% of global fossil fuel emissions. Its emissions are projected to fall by 0.9% in 2026, after two years of slow growth. Oil emissions in China are expected to fall sharply, by 4.6%, while gas falls 0.9% and coal rises only slightly, by 0.3%. The report credits strong growth in renewables and a milder summer than the record heat of 2025, which meant less demand for air conditioning.

The United States, which accounts for about 13% of global emissions, is projected to see a 1.3% fall, mainly because coal emissions drop by 6.7% after an unusual rise in 2025 caused by high gas prices and cold weather. Oil use in the US is expected to fall 1.1%, while gas rises slightly.

The European Union, with about 6% of global emissions, is projected to see a 1.5% fall, with coal down 2.9% and oil down 1.8%. Japan is projected to see a 1% fall, continuing a trend as transport is electrified, its population ages and nuclear power stations come back online.

India is the big exception. Its fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by 4.4% in 2026 — faster than its average growth of 3.5% a year over the past decade — with coal emissions jumping 5.9%. India accounts for about 8% of global emissions and is still building its economy, so its energy use is growing fast.

There is also a striking gap in how much each person emits. In 2025, the average person in India emitted 2.2 tonnes of fossil CO2. The average American emitted 14.5 tonnes — more than six times as much. The global average in 2026 is about 4.6 tonnes per person, around 4% below its peak in the early 2010s.

One encouraging sign in the report is that 40 countries, together accounting for 26% of global fossil fuel emissions, managed to cut their emissions while their economies grew over the period from 2016 to 2025. That is nearly double the 22 countries that did the same in the previous decade. It shows that economic growth and falling emissions can go together — but so far only in a minority of countries.

Less than four years of carbon budget left

Perhaps the most sobering number in the report is not about this year’s emissions at all. It is about how much room is left.

Scientists calculate a “carbon budget” — the total amount of CO2 the world can still emit before global warming passes a certain limit. To have a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the limit agreed in the Paris Agreement of 2015, the remaining budget is just 150 billion tonnes of CO2 from the start of 2027.

At the current rate of emissions, that budget will be used up in less than four years.

The budgets for higher limits are larger but still limited: 510 billion tonnes for 1.7 degrees, or about 12 years of current emissions, and 1,035 billion tonnes for 2 degrees, or about 24 years.

Human-caused warming already reached 1.37 degrees above pre-industrial levels in 2025, according to the report. And the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is set to reach 427.7 parts per million in 2026 — 54% above pre-industrial levels.

A single year above 1.5 degrees does not mean the Paris target has formally failed, because the target is measured over decades. But scientists say every year that comes close to or passes that line is a sign that the world is running out of time.

What it means for Pakistan

The report was presented at COP31, the UN climate summit now under way in Antalya, where nearly 200 countries are negotiating what to do about climate change. Pakistan has more at stake in those talks than most countries.

Pakistan is regularly listed among the nations most vulnerable to climate change, even though it produces only a small share of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Floods, heatwaves and changing rainfall already hit the country hard — the monsoon floods of 2025, which the United Nations described as the worst in Punjab in nearly four decades, showed how much damage extreme weather can do.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Turkiye on Tuesday, 10 November, leading Pakistan’s delegation at COP31, and is due to address the Leaders’ Summit on 11 November. For Pakistan, the key asks are the same ones developing countries are making across the board: more money for adaptation, faster progress on promises already made, and real help for countries hit hardest by floods, heat and drought.

The carbon budget numbers explain why those asks are urgent. When the world has less than four years of emissions left before the 1.5-degree budget is gone, the countries that did least to cause the problem — like Pakistan — are the ones that will pay the highest price for the warming already locked in.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned as COP31 opened on Monday that the world has entered “a new age of climate extremes“, and urged leaders to cut emissions faster, move away from fossil fuels fairly, and deliver the money and protection vulnerable countries need.

What happens next

The report’s authors are clear that 2026 is not a turning point — not yet. A lasting fall in emissions needs clean energy to grow faster than energy demand, and forests and peatlands to be protected at the same time.

Three things will decide whether this year’s small fall becomes the start of a real decline.

The first is what happens to oil. If the Iran conflict eases and the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully, oil prices could fall and oil use could bounce back. The 2026 fall is, in large part, a war effect — and war effects do not last.

The second is clean energy. Solar, wind and electric vehicles are already offsetting around two-thirds of the emissions from rising energy demand. If their growth speeds up, they could push emissions down even without an oil shock. If it slows, emissions will rise again.

The third is land. Peat fires and forest loss in Southeast Asia pushed total emissions to a record this year. Until deforestation and peatland burning are brought under control, the gains from cleaner power and transport will keep being cancelled out.

COP31 runs for two weeks in Antalya, with the political decisions expected in the second week. The carbon budget report sets the stakes: the world has used up almost all of its room for manoeuvre, and the choices made in the next few years will decide how hot the planet gets.

Frequently asked questions

Are global emissions falling?

Emissions from fossil fuels and cement are projected to fall by about 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes — the first fall since the Covid pandemic year of 2020. But total emissions, including land-use change, are projected to reach a record 43.3 billion tonnes.

Why are fossil fuel emissions falling in 2026?

Two reasons: the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices up sharply, cutting oil use; and solar, wind and electric vehicles are growing fast enough to offset around two-thirds of the emissions from rising energy demand.

Which fuel is falling and which is rising?

Oil emissions are projected to fall 1.9%, gas emissions to fall 0.3%, and coal emissions to rise 0.6%. Coal still accounts for about 41% of fossil fuel CO2, oil for 33% and gas for 21%.

How much carbon budget is left for 1.5 degrees?

Just 150 billion tonnes of CO2 from the start of 2027 — less than four years of emissions at the current rate.

What is the Global Carbon Budget?

It is an annual report by the Global Carbon Project, a team of more than 140 scientists from over 90 institutions. The 2026 edition is the 21st, published in the journal Earth System Science Data and presented at COP31 in Antalya on 10 November 2026.

Why do total emissions still rise if fossil fuel emissions fall?

Because emissions from land-use change — mainly peat fires and forest damage in Southeast Asia, linked to a strong El Nino — are expected to rise from 4.4 to 5.1 billion tonnes in 2026, more than wiping out the fall in fossil fuel emissions.

Conclusion

The Global Carbon Budget 2026 tells two stories at once. The first is hopeful: fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall for the first time in five years, helped by the rapid growth of solar, wind and electric vehicles. The second is a warning: the fall is tiny, it is partly caused by war, and total emissions are still at a record high because forests are burning.

The world has less than four years of carbon budget left for 1.5 degrees of warming. Whether 2026 turns out to be the year emissions peaked, or just a pause before they rise again, will depend on what happens next — at COP31 in Antalya, in energy markets, and in the forests of Southeast Asia.

Sources

• Carbon Brief, “Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use”, 10 November 2026: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-co2-emissions-set-to-dip-in-2026-as-iran-conflict-hits-oil-use
• Le Monde, “Fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions show slight global drop, an encouraging but insufficient sign”, 10 November 2026: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2026/11/10/fossil-fuel-related-co-emissions-show-slight-global-drop-an-encouraging-but-insufficient-sign_6776431_114.html
• The Straits Times, “Fossil fuel emissions fall on Iran war and renewables, research says”, 10 November 2026: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/fossil-fuel-emissions-fall-due-to-iran-war-renewables-research?ref=latest
• Australian Science Media Centre (Scimex), “Fossil CO2 emissions decrease in 2026” (Global Carbon Project news release), 10 November 2026: https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/fossil-co2-emissions-decrease-in-2026

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.