Floodwater around homes in Kibra, Nairobi, June 2026

Kenya Braces for Record El Niño Floods as Rains Peak in November — Nearly 900,000 People Could Be Forced From Their Homes

November 11, 2026 Faizan Altaf

Kenya is bracing for floods. Forecasters warn that this year’s El Niño could be one of the strongest ever recorded, and the country’s short rainy season is now reaching its most dangerous point. November is usually the wettest month of the season, and millions of people — especially those living near rivers in crowded informal settlements — are waiting anxiously for rain that has not yet arrived in full force.

The warnings are stark. The United Nations’ migration agency says almost 900,000 people in Kenya could be forced to leave their homes this year, mostly because of the predicted floods. The Kenya Red Cross says 46 of the country’s 47 counties are at risk, with more than two million people likely to be affected. And the national weather service says 43 counties should expect more rain than usual between October and December.

For people like Agnes Shikoli, a 62-year-old grandmother living beside the Ngong river in Kibera, one of Nairobi’s largest informal settlements, the fear is personal. She has already lost her sister to flooding this year. Now she fears the worst may still be coming.

What is El Niño — and why is this one different?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern. It begins far away, in the Pacific Ocean, when the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm. That warming changes how air and clouds move around the world, shifting where rain falls and how heavy it is.

It is important to be clear about one thing: El Niño is not itself rainfall. As Dr Phineas Okoth, a principal meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department, explained this month, El Niño is a warming that happens far away in the Pacific. What matters for Kenya is how that warming interacts with other weather systems closer to home — and this year, that interaction looks worrying.

The regional climate body IGAD warned in September that there was an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño during October to December 2026. Forecasters say the conditions now in place resemble those of the 1997–98 El Niño, one of the most destructive weather events East Africa has ever seen.

Weather forecaster Jemima Gacheru told the BBC that temperature conditions in the Indian Ocean today are similar to those recorded during the 1997 event. On top of the strong El Niño already in play in the Pacific, there is also a positive Indian Ocean Dipole — a pattern sometimes called the “Indian Niño” because it works in a similar way, warming one side of the Indian Ocean relative to the other. When the two happen together, rainfall over Kenya tends to be stronger.

“We expect to have some enhanced rainfall over several parts of the country,” Gacheru said.

The warnings in numbers

Kenya’s short rainy season runs from October to December, and November is normally its peak month. The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority, in its seasonal forecast for November and December, said 43 counties are expected to receive above-average rainfall. Above average, in this forecast, means more than 125% of the long-term average for the season. It does not mean it will rain every day — but it does mean heavy downpours are more likely, along with flash floods, landslides, overflowing rivers and damage to roads, homes and crops.

The 43 counties include Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru, Kiambu, Machakos, Kajiado, Garissa, Tana River, Baringo, West Pokot, Meru, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Kitui, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Narok, Bomet, Kericho and Nandi, among others. Much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit could also receive above-average rain, while Turkana and a few other areas are expected to be near average or above.

The October to December season provides more than 30% of the year’s rainfall in several Kenyan counties. For farmers, that can mean better soil moisture and longer growing seasons — but when the rain comes too fast and too hard, the same season brings destruction.

The Kenya Red Cross has put the scale of the risk in plain terms. Its disaster risk reduction manager, Peter Murgor, said 46 out of 47 counties are at risk, with more than two million people likely to be affected. Nairobi alone has identified 16 flood hotspots that need urgent work, with efforts under way to clear and deepen drainage systems.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM), the UN’s migration agency, has warned that almost 900,000 people could be forced to leave their homes in Kenya this year, mostly because of the predicted floods.

So far, the heavy rains that were forecast have not fully arrived. But experts say that is no reason to relax. Nobody knows exactly when the rains will come, or how much rain there will be — and the peak of the season is now.

Life on the riverbank: one family’s fear

Agnes Shikoli’s home in Kibera sits just a couple of metres from the Ngong river, which runs through the densely populated settlement in Nairobi. Her small house is made of corrugated iron. In March, during the long rainy season earlier this year, floodwater rose halfway up the six-foot (1.8-metre) wall of her home. A broken television still sits in the corner, ruined after it was immersed in water.

Tucked out of sight is a photograph of her sister, Beatrice Khalayi, who was 58 when she died after intense rains caused widespread destruction in Kibera. She was among more than 60 people across Kenya who lost their lives in floods earlier this year.

“Someone called me to tell me that she had died of electrocution after her house flooded,” Shikoli told the BBC. “When I see a picture of her, I feel uneasy — that’s why I keep it far from me, so I don’t see it.”

With the short rainy season now starting, and with warnings that El Niño could bring a new round of flooding, she is afraid — and she is not alone.

“I feel like it can kill us. These houses aren’t made of stone,” the 62-year-old said. “They can fall on us, or the water can drown us.”

Council officials have told Shikoli and her family that they should leave their home on the riverbank until the rainy season has passed. But she earns just $2 (about £1.50) a day selling groundnuts and fruit from a small stall next to the river. Moving is not a choice she can afford.

“I want to move,” she says. “But I don’t have the means. We just have to persevere and leave it to God.”

Her story is shared by thousands of families across Nairobi’s informal settlements. Floods hit these neighbourhoods hardest, especially those near rivers, like Kibera and Mathare, where houses sit just a few metres from the water. Some people live on the slopes of the river itself, because the settlements keep expanding and there is nowhere else to go. When flash floods come, these houses can be swept away, endangering everyone inside.

Nairobi’s race to clear its rivers

Outside Shikoli’s house, teams of workers in high-visibility vests have been shovelling and raking rubbish out of the riverbed and carrying it far from the water. The work is part of a programme called Climate Worx, run from the office of President William Ruto, which aims to rehabilitate Nairobi’s rivers. The work has intensified since August, when warnings grew about the possible scale of this year’s El Niño.

Rubbish clogging Nairobi’s drains and sewers was seen as a major factor in the deadly floods earlier this year. Blocked drains and inadequate sewage systems were widely blamed for the high number of deaths, because the excess rainfall had nowhere to escape. Similar work to unclog drainage systems is now going on across Nairobi, a sprawling city built on hilly ground and crossed by three major rivers.

But the workers have a huge task on their hands. Nairobi County’s disaster management chief, Bramwell Simiyu, told the BBC that the city’s drainage systems have been “untouched for many years” — and that removing the rubbish from them will save lives.

The scale of the problem is stark. Nairobi’s drainage system was developed about 30 years ago to serve a population of around 2.5 million people. Today, the city deals with about 7 million people during the day and 5.5 million at night. Simiyu said investment of up to $192 million (£143 million) would be needed to upgrade the sewerage and drainage system entirely — and there is little sign that either the cash-strapped national government or the city council can raise that kind of money.

A government programme to restore the city’s rivers found that settlements near rivers have increased the flooding risk, and recommended a protective “buffer” and humane relocation where necessary. But rising poverty keeps driving people to live close to rivers, because that is where they can afford to be.

Simiyu’s own estimates show how many people are in danger. In the worst case, he said, about 100,000 people in low-income settlements are at risk. A more moderate projection puts the figure at about 5,000 households, or around 20,000 people. Anyone forced to leave their home will be moved to one of 167 designated holding grounds, where stockpiles of relief food and supplies will be distributed.

The 1997–98 warning from history

In East Africa, this El Niño is being widely compared to the event of 1997–98, which caused widespread flooding and destruction in Kenya and Somalia.

The 1998 floods killed 2,000 people in Somalia and forced a further 250,000 to flee their homes, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Up to 80% of crops were destroyed in some parts of the country. Somalia’s disaster management agency has now warned that 1.2 million people are at risk of displacement caused by extreme weather — including the risk of both floods and drought. The United Nations’ famine warning system, the IPC, has warned of an increased risk of food insecurity in Somalia, as supply chains are disrupted by the impact of El Niño.

Kenya is not the only African country worried about what El Niño could bring. In other parts of the continent, forecasters fear the same event could bring extreme heat and long periods without rain — a crisis for farmers across parts of West Africa, including the semi-arid Sahel, and in southern Africa, where the risk of crop failure is high. The same climate event can flood one region and dry out another, which is why El Niño is watched so closely around the world.

The warnings come as world leaders gather in Antalya, Turkey, for the COP31 climate summit, where the talks opened this week. Scientists have said 2026 is on track to become the hottest year on record, and the United Nations has warned of a “supersized” El Niño as countries prepare for its impact.

What happens next

November is usually the peak month of the short rains, so the coming weeks are the most dangerous period. The authority has advised Kenyans to follow regular weather updates and county-specific forecasts as conditions change.

For people in flood-prone areas, the advice is practical: know your nearest safe ground, keep important documents in a waterproof bag, and listen to county officials if they say to move. For Nairobi’s informal settlements, the 167 holding grounds are the official refuge — but as Agnes Shikoli’s story shows, leaving home is not simple when your livelihood depends on staying where you are.

What is certain is that the rains are coming, the forecasts point to a very strong El Niño, and the people with the least to lose are the ones most exposed. Kenya has had months of warning. The test now is whether that warning turns into protection for the families living on the riverbanks.

Frequently asked questions

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. The warming changes global air and cloud movements, shifting rainfall patterns around the world. It is not itself a type of rain — it is a warming far away in the Pacific that influences weather elsewhere.

Why is the 2026 El Niño expected to be so strong?

Forecasters warn it could be one of the strongest on record. The regional body IGAD put the probability of a very strong El Niño during October to December 2026 at 81%. Conditions in the Indian Ocean are similar to those in the 1997 El Niño, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is adding to the effect.

Which parts of Kenya are most at risk?

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority says 43 counties should expect above-average rainfall in the October to December season, including Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru, Kiambu and Garissa. The Kenya Red Cross says 46 of 47 counties are at risk, with more than two million people likely to be affected. Informal settlements near rivers, such as Kibera and Mathare in Nairobi, face the greatest danger.

How many people could be displaced?

The International Organization for Migration has warned that almost 900,000 people in Kenya could be forced to leave their homes this year, mostly because of the predicted floods.

When is the rain expected to peak?

November is usually the peak rainfall month of Kenya’s short rainy season, which runs from October to December. The heaviest rains predicted so far have not yet arrived, but experts remain concerned.

What is being done to prepare?

Under the Climate Worx programme, workers are clearing rubbish from Nairobi’s rivers and drains. Counties have updated contingency plans, and Nairobi has identified 16 flood hotspots and 167 holding grounds for people forced to leave their homes. The Red Cross says preparations are 70 to 75% ready.

Conclusion

Kenya has been given something rare in a disaster: months of warning. The forecasters have been clear since September that a very strong El Niño was likely. The weather service has named the 43 counties most at risk. The Red Cross, the UN and the county governments have all spelled out the numbers — two million people at risk, almost 900,000 who could be displaced, 100,000 in Nairobi’s poorest settlements in the worst case.

The question is no longer whether the rain will come. It is whether the warnings reach the people who need them most, and whether the preparations are enough to protect families like Agnes Shikoli’s, who live a few metres from a river in a house made of corrugated iron and earn $2 a day.

She wants to move. She cannot afford to. For her, and for hundreds of thousands of Kenyans like her, the next few weeks will decide whether this El Niño brings a season of heavy rain — or a disaster.

Sources

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.

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