Pakistan’s Exports to the US Barely Grew While Imports Surged 45% — What the New Trade Numbers Mean

Pakistan’s trade with the United States is moving in two very different directions. New figures from the State Bank of Pakistan show that exports to America grew only slightly in the first three months of the current financial year, while imports from America jumped by nearly half. The result is a trade surplus that is shrinking fast — and that is exactly what the two countries agreed would happen.

The numbers, published by Dawn on 10 November 2026, cover July to September 2026, the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27. They show a familiar story for Pakistan: the United States remains by far its biggest single export market, but selling more to America is getting harder, while buying from America is getting easier — by design.

The headline numbers

Pakistan’s exports of goods to North America rose 4.65 per cent to $1.826 billion in the first quarter of 2026-27, up from $1.745 billion in the same period a year earlier, according to data compiled by the State Bank of Pakistan.

Imports from the region told a very different story. They surged 60.58 per cent to $841.31 million, up from $523.91 million a year ago.

The United States dominates the picture. It accounted for nearly 94 per cent of Pakistan’s total exports to North America, with the rest going mainly to Canada and other countries in the region.

Exports to the US itself rose 4.44 per cent to $1.716 billion in the July-September quarter, up from $1.643 billion a year earlier. That is growth — but modest growth, and slower than Pakistan’s exports to the world as a whole. Overall, Pakistan’s exports to all countries rose 7.65 per cent in the quarter, from $7.853 billion to $8.454 billion.

Imports from the US, meanwhile, jumped 45.44 per cent to $659.23 million, up from $453.28 million a year earlier. September alone saw imports from the US reach $172.48 million, up 23.26 per cent on the same month last year and 7.6 per cent higher than August.

Why imports are rising so fast

The surge in imports is not an accident. It is the result of a trade agreement between Pakistan and the United States.

Under the deal, Pakistan agreed to import more American goods to help balance a trade gap that has long tilted heavily in Pakistan’s favour. The United States has been Pakistan’s largest export market for years, and Washington has pushed Islamabad to buy more in return.

The Dawn report notes that the rise in imports “reflects Islamabad’s efforts to ease trade imbalances with the region, as per an agreement reached with the US.”

The backdrop is the trade policy of US President Donald Trump, who has imposed additional tariffs on imports into the United States while extending limited relief to Pakistan under a reciprocal arrangement. In plain terms, Pakistan got some breathing room on tariffs — but part of the price was a promise to buy more American products.

That pattern is now visible across the full financial year as well. In fiscal year 2025-26, imports from the US under the agreement grew nearly 39 per cent, while Pakistan’s exports to the US rose by only 1.55 per cent, to $6.125 billion from $6.031 billion. Imports from the US over the full year rose 38.93 per cent to $3.265 billion, up from $2.350 billion.

The shrinking surplus

When a country exports more than it imports, it runs a trade surplus. Pakistan has long run a large surplus with the United States — it sells far more to America than it buys from America. That surplus is now narrowing.

In the July-September quarter, Pakistan exported $1.716 billion worth of goods to the US and imported $659 million worth, leaving a surplus of about $1.06 billion. A year earlier, the same calculation produced a surplus of about $1.19 billion — $1.643 billion in exports against $453 million in imports. In other words, the surplus shrank by roughly $133 million, or about 11 per cent, in a single quarter.

That matters because the surplus with the US has been one of the bright spots in Pakistan’s trade picture. Pakistan’s overall imports are growing much faster than its exports: total imports rose 14.30 per cent in the quarter to $17.784 billion, while total exports rose 7.65 per cent to $8.454 billion. The gap between what Pakistan sells and what it buys from the world is widening, even as the gap with the US narrows.

For Pakistan’s economy, the US surplus has helped offset deficits with other trading partners. If it keeps shrinking, the pressure on Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves and its currency will grow — unless exports to other markets pick up the slack.

How the US compares with other markets

The United States is still Pakistan’s number one export destination by a wide margin, but other markets are growing faster.

China is now the second-largest destination for Pakistani goods. Exports to China rose 17.95 per cent to $663.57 million in the first quarter, up from $562.56 million a year earlier, according to State Bank data reported in late October. That is much faster growth than the 4.44 per cent recorded for the US.

Canada, the other big North American market, took $109.72 million of Pakistani exports in the quarter, up 7.53 per cent from $102.03 million a year earlier. Over the full previous financial year, however, exports to Canada had shrunk 2.3 per cent to $377.46 million.

Smaller markets showed dramatic swings. Exports to Latin America surged 118.64 per cent to $21.58 million in the quarter, up from $9.87 million a year earlier — though from a very small base, and after falling 8.23 per cent over the full previous year. Exports to Central America stayed almost flat at $45.27 million, against $44.99 million a year ago, with Mexico the main destination in that region.

The picture that emerges is a familiar one for Pakistani exporters: the US market is huge but slow-growing, while smaller and newer markets are growing fast but remain tiny in absolute terms.

What this means for Pakistani exporters

Pakistan’s exports to the United States are dominated by textiles and clothing, along with leather goods, rice and other agricultural products. These are competitive markets where price matters, and where tariffs can quickly erase a thin profit margin.

The modest 4.44 per cent growth in exports to the US suggests that Pakistani exporters are holding their ground but not gaining much. September offered a brighter spot: exports to the US reached $597.48 million in the month, up 12.5 per cent from $531.27 million a year earlier, and up 14.1 per cent on August. But one strong month does not change the quarterly trend.

The bigger question is what Pakistan is buying from the US. The sharp rise in imports is driven by the trade agreement, and it is likely to continue as Pakistan follows through on its commitment to buy more American goods. That could include agricultural products, machinery and energy-related goods — the kinds of products the US typically sells to Pakistan.

For ordinary Pakistanis, the trade figures matter in two ways. First, exports support jobs — especially in textiles, which employs millions of workers. Slow export growth means slower job creation in the factories that make goods for American shops. Second, a widening overall trade gap puts pressure on the rupee and on the cost of imported goods, from fuel to food.

What happens next

Three things will decide how this story develops in the coming months.

First, whether Pakistan’s exports to the US can accelerate. The September figures suggest momentum is building, but exporters will need the tariff relief under the reciprocal arrangement to hold — and to be enough to keep Pakistani goods competitive against rivals such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and India.

Second, how far the import surge goes. Pakistan agreed to buy more from the US, and the 60 per cent jump in imports from North America shows it is following through. But imports also cost foreign exchange, and Pakistan’s reserves are limited. The government will have to balance its trade commitments against the need to protect its external finances.

Third, whether other markets can take up the slack. Exports to China grew nearly 18 per cent in the quarter, and Latin America more than doubled — but both remain far smaller than the US market. For Pakistan’s exporters, the US will remain the market that matters most for a long time yet.

For now, the message of the new numbers is clear: Pakistan is buying much more from America and selling only a little more. That is the deal the two countries struck — and the test will be whether the export side of the bargain starts to grow fast enough to keep up.

Frequently asked questions

How much did Pakistan export to the US in the first quarter of FY27?

Pakistan exported goods worth $1.716 billion to the United States in July-September 2026, up 4.44 per cent from $1.643 billion in the same quarter a year earlier, according to State Bank of Pakistan data.

How much did Pakistan import from the US?

Imports from the US rose 45.44 per cent to $659.23 million in the quarter, up from $453.28 million a year earlier. Imports from North America as a whole rose 60.58 per cent to $841.31 million.

Why are imports from the US rising so fast?

Under a trade agreement with the United States, Pakistan committed to import more American goods to help balance the trade deficit. The rise in imports reflects that commitment, alongside the tariff and trade arrangements put in place under President Donald Trump.

Is the US still Pakistan’s biggest export market?

Yes. The United States remains Pakistan’s largest single export destination by a wide margin, accounting for nearly 94 per cent of Pakistan’s exports to North America. China is the second-largest destination, with exports of $663.57 million in the quarter.

Is Pakistan’s trade surplus with the US shrinking?

Yes. The surplus narrowed to about $1.06 billion in the July-September quarter, down from about $1.19 billion a year earlier, because imports grew far faster than exports.

Sources

• Dawn — “Modest rise in exports to US, imports surge” — https://www.dawn.com/news/print/2043370
• The Nation — “Pakistan’s exports to US up by 4.44pc to $1.71b in Q1” — https://www.nation.com.pk/09-Nov-2026/pakistan-s-exports-us-4-44pc-dollar-1-71b-q1
• UrduPoint — “US Remains Top Destination For Pakistani Exports In July-September 2026, SBP Data Shows” — https://www.urdupoint.com/en/business/us-china-uk-top-3-destinations-of-pakistan-2276944.html
• Bloom Pakistan — “Pakistan’s exports to US reach $597 million in September” — https://bloompakistan.com/pakistans-exports-to-us-reach-597-million-in-september/

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.