Russian military casualties in Ukraine estimated at up to 2.1 million, Economist study finds

A new study by The Economist puts total Russian military casualties since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 at between 1.4 million and 2.1 million killed and wounded, with between 374,000 and 770,000 soldiers killed. The figures were shared on 31 October by the magazine’s senior data journalist, Sondre Ulvund Solstad.

The estimates are far higher than The Economist’s own earlier work. In May 2026 it put Russian deaths at 280,000 to 518,000 and total casualties at 1.1 million to 1.5 million. In July 2025 the ranges were 190,000 to 350,000 dead and 900,000 to 1.3 million casualties. The new figures suggest the human toll has risen sharply through 2026.

The picture is echoed in battlefield reporting. Ukraine’s General Staff said Russian personnel losses in October alone reached 49,040 by 29 October, the highest monthly total of the war, before the month had even ended. For comparison, the independent tracking project UALosses puts Ukrainian military deaths at 116,000, with a further 106,000 listed as missing.

Why it matters

These are statistical estimates, not confirmed counts, and Moscow does not publish its own casualty figures. But the direction of travel is clear: after more than four and a half years of war, Russia’s losses are mounting faster than before, and Ukraine’s General Staff says the rate now exceeds Russia’s ability to replenish its units.

The study also underlines how the war is widening beyond the front line. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) counted 290 Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure in the 30 days to 23 October, killing at least 62 civilians.

What happens next

The October monthly figure will be finalised once the month ends, and The Economist’s models will be updated as more data becomes available. Attention will now turn to whether the record loss rate continues into November, and how Moscow responds to the growing strain on manpower.

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.

Sources

• https://www.europesays.com/russia/82941/ (Europe Says, 31 October 2026)
• https://112.ua/en/vtrati-rosii-v-ukraini-perevisili-14-miljona-vijskovih-ubitimi-i-poranenimi-za-ves-cas-vijni-195149 (112.ua, 31 October 2026)