Spain Election 2026: Polls Put the Right Ahead as Sánchez Fights to Hold On

November 9, 2026 Faizan Altaf

Spain will vote in a snap general election on Sunday, 29 November 2026, and the latest polls point to the same outcome: Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists are set to lose, while the conservative People’s Party (PP) and the right-wing Vox party are on course to win a majority together. The Spain election 2026 has become a straight fight over who governs the country next — and with the official campaign starting on Friday, 13 November, Sánchez has less than three weeks to close the gap.

Every major poll published in the past week agrees on the broad picture, even if they disagree on the size of the right’s lead. The PP would finish first, the Socialists second, and Vox third. The only real question now is how big the right-wing majority will be — and whether Sánchez can pull off a comeback that almost no pollster expects.

What the latest polls say

Four new polls published on Monday, 9 November, all tell a similar story. Together, the PP and Vox are projected to win between about 190 and 200 of the 350 seats in Spain’s lower house, the Congress of Deputies. A party or bloc needs 176 seats for an absolute majority.

The strongest result for the right comes from a SocioMetrica poll published by the newspaper El Español. It projects around 200 seats for the PP and Vox combined, with the Socialists winning 108 seats — two more than in the previous survey from the same pollster. The poll was based on 5,460 online interviews and has a margin of error of three percentage points. It also found a net transfer of 832,000 voters from the left to the right since the last survey.

A survey by 40dB for the newspaper El País gives a closer race, but the same winner. It puts the gap between the PP and the Socialists at just two percentage points, with Socialist support rising by 1.8 points to 29.9% of voting intentions. Even so, it still projects around 190 seats for the PP and Vox together. That survey covered 2,000 online respondents, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.

A third poll, by Sigma Dos for El Mundo, projects 199 seats for the PP and Vox, with the Socialists on 105 seats. It surveyed 4,172 people and has a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points. A fourth poll, by IMOP for El Confidencial, focused on how voters are moving between parties rather than on seat numbers. It found falling loyalty among Socialist voters and rising support for the PP, with the PP gaining largely at the expense of Vox supporters.

The polls also carry bad news for the smaller parties on the left. Spain’s hard-left parties failed last month to agree on a common list of candidates, which has reduced Sánchez’s chances of staying in power at the head of a left-wing coalition. The polls put the Broad Front (Frente Amplio) on between 10 and 15 seats, while Podemos — once a major force in Spanish politics — is at risk of losing its representation in parliament altogether.

The polls agree — but not on everything

One poll stands out from the rest. A survey by SW Demoscopia for the television channel La Séptima, published on 5 November, actually put the Socialists ahead: 29.8% for the PSOE against 29.1% for the PP, with Vox on 16%. That poll projected 126 seats for the Socialists and 117 for the PP. Even in that most optimistic reading for Sánchez, however, the PP and Vox together would still hold 179 seats — a majority, but only three seats above the 176 threshold.

Other recent polls sit between the two extremes. A Hamalgama poll for Vozpópuli, published on 2 November, gave the PP 135 seats, the Socialists 106 and Vox 70 — a combined 205 for the PP and Vox. An aggregate of recent polls by Vote-Scope, updated on 8 November, projected 133 seats for the PP, 104 for the Socialists and 69 for Vox, or 204 for the two right-wing parties together.

The message is consistent: the polls disagree about whether the right wins by a little or by a lot, but they agree that it wins. Polls can be wrong, and three weeks is a long time in politics, but Sánchez would need a swing that no recent survey has shown.

Why Sánchez called the election

This is a snap election — one called earlier than planned. Spain was not due to vote until 2027. Sánchez, who has led a Socialist government for eight years, decided to go to the country after Congress voted down both of his emergency housing decrees on 2 October. He dissolved parliament three days later, on 5 October, and the election was set for 29 November.

The move was a gamble. By calling the vote himself, Sánchez hoped to frame the election on his own terms and force his opponents to fight on ground he chose. But the polls suggest the gamble has not paid off so far. The public mood had already turned against him: a SocioMetrica survey in May 2026 found that 74.3% of Spaniards wanted early elections, a sign of how deep the frustration with political deadlock had become.

Sánchez was re-elected in 2023 at the head of a left-wing coalition, with support from smaller regional and left-wing parties. That route back to power now looks closed. The hard left is divided, Podemos is fighting for survival, and the Socialists’ own vote has slipped. The Vote-Scope aggregate suggests the Socialists would fall from the 121 seats they hold now to around 104.

The four issues shaping the campaign

The official campaign begins on Friday, 13 November, and four issues are expected to dominate it: housing, immigration, corruption and the aftermath of a deadly train crash.

Housing

Housing is the issue that triggered the election, and it remains the most important one for many voters. Prices and rents have risen sharply in Spain’s big cities, and young people in particular struggle to find homes they can afford. Sánchez tried to pass emergency housing decrees, but Congress rejected them — the defeat that led him to call the election. Mass street protests over housing have taken place across the country, and both sides now claim to have the answer. The PP says the Socialists’ rules made the problem worse; the Socialists say the right would do nothing for renters.

Immigration

Immigration has become a central issue in Spanish politics, as it has across much of Europe. Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, has campaigned hard on tighter borders and tougher rules, and its rise in the polls — from a small party to one projected to win around 70 seats — is built largely on that message. The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has also hardened its position, competing with Vox for the same voters. For Sánchez, the challenge is to defend his government’s record without losing voters who want stricter controls.

Corruption

Corruption is damaging the Socialists. The party’s former secretary of organisation was sentenced to 24 years in prison in the Koldo corruption case, and the scandal has hung over the government for months. The PP has made it a central campaign theme, presenting the election as a chance to clean up Spanish politics. Sánchez argues that his government acted against wrongdoing, but the sentence of such a senior party figure is hard for voters to ignore.

The train crash

The deadliest train crash in Spain’s recent history has also shaken the campaign. On 28 October, a high-speed train crash at Urda killed 69 people, according to reports at the time. The disaster forced the Transport Minister, Óscar Puente, to resign, and most parties suspended political activities in the days that followed — with the exception of Vox. Polls taken just after the crash showed Socialist support falling, and the party has partly recovered since, but the crash remains a powerful symbol for voters of a government that had lost control.

What happens if the right wins

If the polls are right, the PP’s Alberto Núñez Feijóo would become prime minister — but he would need Vox to govern. The PP alone is projected to win around 133 to 135 seats, well short of the 176 needed for a majority. A coalition or support deal with Vox, which is projected to win around 69 to 70 seats, would take the two parties comfortably past the threshold.

That would be a major shift for Spain. Vox has never been part of a national government. Its entry into government would likely mean tougher immigration rules, a rollback of some Socialist-era laws, and a more confrontational style with Spain’s regional governments. It would also put Spain in line with a wider shift to the right across Europe, where right-wing and far-right parties have gained ground in several countries in recent years.

For the PP, the challenge would be managing a partner that is both essential and unpredictable. Vox has already shown it will not simply follow the PP’s lead, and the two parties compete for many of the same voters. The IMOP poll’s finding that the PP is gaining support at Vox’s expense hints at that rivalry: the closer the PP gets to a majority on its own, the less it needs Vox — and the more Vox will fight to stay relevant.

What could still change

Three weeks is a long time in an election campaign, and the official campaign has not even begun. Several things could still move the numbers:

The debates. Televised debates between Sánchez and Feijóo could matter, especially if one of them makes a serious mistake. Sánchez is a strong campaigner who has come back from difficult positions before.
The polls could narrow. The 40dB poll for El País already shows the gap closing to two points, and the La Séptima poll shows the Socialists ahead. If that trend continues, the right’s majority could shrink to a handful of seats — or vanish.
Turnout. Snap elections in late November can mean lower turnout, and lower turnout tends to help parties with the most motivated voters. Both sides will be fighting hard to get their supporters to the polls.
Events. The train crash showed how quickly an event can change the race. Another unexpected development — at home or abroad — could shift the contest in the final days.

Even so, the scale of the task facing Sánchez is clear. He needs not just to close a gap of several points, but to do it while his potential coalition partners are divided and shrinking. The polls say the right will win; the campaign will decide by how much.

Why this election matters beyond Spain

Spain is the European Union’s fourth-largest economy, and its politics affect the whole bloc. A right-wing government in Madrid would change Spain’s voice in Brussels on issues from migration to climate policy to EU spending. It would also matter for the EU’s internal balance, coming after right-wing gains in several other member states.

For the rest of Europe, the Spanish vote is also a test of whether mainstream conservative parties can govern with far-right partners — and what that means in practice. The PP and Vox have governed together in some Spanish regions, but running a country together would be a much bigger step.

The result on 29 November will also shape Spain’s relationship with its regions, its approach to housing and migration, and the future of a Socialist party that has governed for most of the past eight years. Whatever the outcome, it will be one of the most important elections in Spain’s recent history.

Frequently asked questions

When is the Spain election 2026?

The snap general election takes place on Sunday, 29 November 2026. The official campaign starts on Friday, 13 November.

Why was the election called early?

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dissolved parliament on 5 October after Congress voted down both of his emergency housing decrees on 2 October. Spain was not due to hold a general election until 2027.

Who is leading in the polls?

The conservative People’s Party (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leads in almost every poll. The Socialists (PSOE), led by Pedro Sánchez, are second, and Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, is third.

How many seats does a party need to win?

A party or bloc needs 176 of the 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies, Spain’s lower house, for an absolute majority.

Do the PP and Vox have enough seats for a majority?

According to the latest polls, yes. Projections put the two parties together on between about 190 and 205 seats — comfortably above the 176 needed. One outlier poll puts them on 179 seats, only three above the threshold.

What are the main issues in the campaign?

Housing affordability, immigration, corruption — including the Koldo case, in which a former senior Socialist was jailed for 24 years — and the aftermath of the deadly train crash at Urda on 28 October.

Conclusion

The Spain election 2026 is Pedro Sánchez’s gamble — and so far, the polls say it is not paying off. The PP leads, Vox is strong, and the two right-wing parties together are on course for a majority in the Congress of Deputies. Sánchez has three weeks of campaigning to change that, and the polls have already shown some movement in his direction. But he would need the biggest comeback of his career to stay in power, and he would need it while his allies on the left are divided and shrinking. On 29 November, Spain will decide whether eight years of Socialist-led government come to an end — and whether the country’s next government includes the far right for the first time.

Sources

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.

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