Trump Says New Strikes on Iran ‘Highly Unlikely’ If Talks Make Progress — But Three US Carriers Stay Ready

US President Donald Trump has said he is “highly unlikely” to order new military strikes on Iran — as long as talks to end the eight-month war keep moving. But in the same breath, he warned that three American aircraft carriers are sitting off Iran’s coast, “fully locked and loaded”, and that US forces have already picked out 38 Iranian bridges they could destroy within an hour.

The comments, made in a 20-minute phone interview with CNN on Sunday, 8 November, are the clearest sign yet that Trump is weighing two very different paths at the same time: a deal, or another round of war. He repeated the phrase “highly unlikely” five times during the interview.

For Pakistan and the rest of the region, the stakes are high. Any new fighting in the Gulf pushes up oil prices, disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and lands in the middle of a busy diplomatic fortnight — with Pakistan hosting the ECO foreign ministers’ meeting in Islamabad on 15–16 November and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif travelling to Turkiye for the COP31 climate summit.

This article explains what Trump said, what Iran said in reply, why the talks are stuck, and what happens next.

What Trump actually said

Speaking to CNN’s Jim Sciutto, Trump tied any decision on new strikes directly to the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a large share of the world’s oil travels.

“It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement,” Trump said. “The answer is highly unlikely it’s going to be necessary.”

He described Iran as a “failing nation”, pointing to what he said was 301% inflation this year, and claimed US sanctions and earlier strikes had badly weakened Tehran. “They’re withering away financially. We’ve hit them militarily. We could finish them off,” he said.

He also said Iran wanted a deal badly. “Most likely it will not be necessary,” he repeated about the prospect of new military action. “They want to make a deal so badly.”

The interview came days after the US midterm elections on 3 November, in which Trump’s Republican Party lost ground. CNN noted that the war’s unpopularity with American voters was one factor behind the result. Trump himself has acknowledged that the war hurt his party — and his Vice President, JD Vance, blamed the war for the Republicans’ heavy defeat last week. Trump said Vance was right, but added that if he had to order the February attacks again, he would. “For history, this will go down as one of the best things we ever did,” he said, “because if they ever had a nuclear weapon, they would blow up the world.” Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon.

The threat behind the reassurance

Trump’s softer words came wrapped in a very hard warning. He made clear that US forces are already in position if he changes his mind.

“We’re ready for it. I’ve got three aircraft carriers here. The other one just arrived. We have three. They’re fully locked and loaded,” he said.

He also said the US has drawn up a list of infrastructure targets inside Iran, including power plants and bridges. “We have 38 bridges in our site that we can knock down in literally one hour,” he said. “They’ll all be down.”

At the same time, he said he would rather not destroy that infrastructure. “I don’t want to do that because essentially, it’ll take 10 years to rebuild them,” he said. “I don’t like ripping down bridges. And the hardest thing to build is a bridge. It takes years, and I’m a good builder.”

Trump also gave his own account of how much fighting strength Iran has left, claiming its air defences had been destroyed and that it now holds only about 10% of its missile capacity and 15% of its drone capabilities. “The only thing they can do is about 10% level — make some missiles and make some drones. Drones at about 15% because much of their factories are gone,” he said. These are Trump’s claims, and they have not been independently verified.

What Iran says: no progress, and a warning of its own

Tehran’s response was cold. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there has been no progress in the talks with the US, and that the mediators trying to broker a deal have not travelled at all since the “shock” of the American midterm results.

“For the past few days, there has been no more travel [by mediators], and the reason for this is the shock that the election results in the United States have caused to everyone,” Araghchi said. He added that Tehran is waiting to see whether Washington’s position changes after the elections.

Araghchi also warned that Iranian forces would “rain down hell” if the US resumes attacks, and urged Washington to accept Tehran’s two-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a plan under which the waterway would be reopened within two days as part of a wider deal.

Reuters reported last week that Iran has submitted a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, and that the US is reviewing it — but that further discussions would depend on Washington first meeting seven demands from Tehran. Neither side has published the details of those demands.

Qatar has been mediating the talks. On Friday, Qatar said Trump had called Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to discuss de-escalation. A day earlier, Araghchi spoke by phone with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Pakistan, Kuwait, Jordan, Turkiye, Cyprus and Qatar — a sign of how many countries are now involved in trying to keep the diplomacy alive.

The talks are stuck, says Rubio

The mood in Washington is not optimistic either. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters in Florida on Sunday before flying to Paris for a meeting of G7 foreign ministers, said there was no breakthrough in sight.

“I wouldn’t say we’re on the verge of a breakthrough,” Rubio said. “Right now, it hasn’t been very productive because the Iranian demands are simply not just unacceptable, but in some cases outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic.”

He added that mediation efforts were continuing and that the president would always prefer a diplomatic solution. “If there’s a chance for a deal, we’ll explore it,” he said.

The picture, then, is of two sides talking past each other. Trump says a deal is close and strikes are unlikely. His own secretary of state says the talks have produced nothing. Iran says nothing has moved at all since the US elections. That gap is the reason markets and governments across the region are watching every statement so closely.

The pressure campaign goes on anyway

Whatever happens in the talks, the economic pressure on Iran is not easing — it is growing. On Saturday, 7 November, US Central Command announced a new unit, Task Force Iron Gate, to stop Iran moving advanced weapons and other banned goods across its land borders and through the Caspian Sea. On Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social that “Task Force Iron Gate is in full force and effect.”

The task force builds on a naval blockade of Iranian ports that has already been running for months. Washington says the sea blockade has stopped Iran exporting more than $25 billion worth of crude oil. The new land task force, run by about 20 civilian and military personnel from Tampa, Florida, is meant to close the gaps the sea blockade leaves open.

At the same time, the US military has begun offering a reward of up to $20 million for information on Iran’s nuclear programme. And the US military said it fired on and disabled a St. Kitts-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, saying the vessel ignored warnings about breaching the blockade of Iran.

Both countries also reported that shipping had been hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Iranian state media blamed the US military for explosions on Qeshm Island early on Sunday, but attributed blasts in the port cities of Bandar Abbas and Sirik to the actions of Iranian forces.

In short, the shooting has not fully stopped, even while the talking continues.

Oil prices fall — and why that matters for Pakistan

The first market reaction to Trump’s words was relief. Oil prices fell when trading opened on Monday. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down 64 cents, or 0.64%, to $97.67 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell 35 cents to $90.51 a barrel. Brent had briefly fallen by more than $1 a barrel.

That matters directly for Pakistan. The country imports most of its oil, so when global prices fall, fuel costs, transport fares and inflation at home all ease a little. When prices spike — as they do whenever fighting flares in the Gulf — the cost lands straight on Pakistani households and businesses.

Pakistan also has a direct diplomatic stake. It shares a long border with Iran, and its foreign minister was among those Araghchi called last week. Islamabad has spent months trying to keep working relations with both Tehran and Washington, and it is hosting a busy diplomatic week of its own, with the ECO Council of Ministers meeting in Islamabad on 15–16 November. A fresh escalation between the US and Iran would land right in the middle of that diplomacy.

The wider region is still on edge

The US-Iran standoff is not the only flashpoint in the region. A drone attack on the Khor Mor gas facility in Iraq’s Kurdish region knocked out power across more than 70% of the area, causing a fire and the loss of about 70 to 80 percent of the region’s energy capacity. Khor Mor is Iraq’s biggest gas facility and is operated by the Emirati energy company Dana Gas. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen also said it destroyed three missile launch pads in Houthi-controlled territory, after officials reported that falling shrapnel from a missile attack had damaged a Saudi Aramco building in Riyadh.

These incidents show how quickly one attack can spread across the region.

Why this story matters

Eight months after the war began in late February 2026, the two sides are in a stalemate. There has been little military action or significant diplomatic progress for weeks, while oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have come under attack. Now the American president is publicly saying new strikes are unlikely — while parking three aircraft carriers off Iran’s coast and listing the bridges he could destroy in an hour.

That contradiction is the story. Trump is offering Iran a deal with one hand and showing it a weapon with the other. Iran, in turn, is warning of terrible retaliation while offering a two-day plan to reopen the world’s most important oil waterway.

For the region, and for Pakistan in particular, the hope is that the talking wins. The fear is that it does not — and that the next headline is not an interview, but an order.

What happens next

Several things are worth watching in the coming days:

1. The Qatar channel. Qatar is mediating, and Trump has spoken to its Emir. If the mediators start travelling again after their post-election pause, that is a sign the talks are alive.

2. Iran’s seven demands. Reuters reported that Iran’s nuclear proposal depends on Washington meeting seven demands. Until those are known — and answered — it is hard to judge how close a deal really is.

3. The Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s two-day reopening proposal is on the table. Any movement on the waterway would be the clearest signal that both sides are serious about de-escalation.

4. Oil prices. The market fell on Trump’s words. If the talking stalls or ships are hit again, prices will jump — and Pakistan’s fuel bill with them.

5. The carriers. Three US aircraft carriers in the region are both a deterrent and a risk. Their presence makes a surprise attack possible at short notice — and makes a miscalculation more dangerous.

Frequently asked questions

What did Trump actually say about new strikes on Iran?

In a 20-minute phone interview with CNN on Sunday, 8 November, he said it was “highly unlikely” he would need to order new strikes, as long as there is progress in talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He repeated the phrase five times.

What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why does it matter?

It is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a large share of the world’s oil travels by tanker. If it closes or becomes unsafe, global oil prices rise sharply, and oil-importing countries like Pakistan pay more for fuel.

What is Task Force Iron Gate?

It is a new US military task force, announced by US Central Command on 7 November 2026, whose job is to stop Iran moving advanced weapons, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials and illegal money across its land borders and the Caspian Sea. Trump said on Sunday that it is “in full force and effect”.

Has Iran made a new proposal?

Reuters reported that Iran submitted a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, and that the US is reviewing it. Iran’s foreign minister has also proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within two days as part of a deal.

Why are oil prices falling?

Traders took Trump’s comments as a sign that a new round of fighting is less likely in the short term. Brent crude fell 64 cents to $97.67 a barrel when markets opened on Monday, while US oil fell to $90.51.

What does this mean for Pakistan?

Pakistan imports most of its oil, so lower prices help control fuel costs and inflation. Pakistan also shares a border with Iran and is hosting the ECO foreign ministers’ meeting in Islamabad on 15–16 November, so any escalation would land in the middle of its diplomacy.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s message on Sunday was deliberately mixed: new strikes are “highly unlikely”, but the warships are ready, the targets are picked, and the pressure campaign is in full force. Iran’s message was equally mixed: no progress in the talks, a warning of fierce retaliation, and a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in two days.

Both sides are talking about a deal while preparing for war. The next few days — whether the mediators travel, whether the seven demands are answered, whether the tankers sail safely — will show which message was real.

For Pakistan and the wider region, the hope is simple: that the talking wins, the strait stays open, and the oil keeps flowing at prices ordinary people can afford.

Sources

• CNN, “Trump says renewed attacks on Iran ‘highly unlikely’ if talks show progress”, 8 November 2026: https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/08/politics/trump-interview-on-iran
• Reuters, “Oil falls on open as Trump says fresh Iran attacks ‘unlikely'”, 8 November 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-open-trump-says-fresh-iran-attacks-unlikely-2026-11-08/
• Al Jazeera, “Iran war live: Trump says ‘Iron Gate’ in effect; drone hits Iraq gas field”, 9 November 2026: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/11/9/iran-war-live-trump-says-land-blockade-in-effect-drone-cuts-power-in-iraq
• Reuters via Ada Derana, “Trump says he is highly unlikely to order Iran strikes if talks progress”, 9 November 2026: https://adaderana.lk/news/251283

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.