US Warns Madagascar Over Growing Military Ties With Russia — and the ‘Sahel Model’ It Fears

The United States has warned Madagascar against deepening its military ties with Russia, saying the partnership follows a model that has already failed to make West Africa safer. The warning, delivered by a senior American general, puts a spotlight on a quiet power struggle over one of the world’s most important shipping routes — the Mozambique Channel — and on a small island nation that has moved closer to Moscow since its military takeover last year.

Lieutenant General John Brennan, the deputy commander of US Africa Command (AFRICOM), gave the warning during an online briefing on Tuesday, 10 November 2026, days after leading an American delegation to Madagascar and Mozambique. His message was blunt: Madagascar is free to choose its partners, but it should understand the risks of copying Russia’s approach in the Sahel — a region where, in Washington’s view, Moscow’s help has not delivered the security its partners were promised.

Madagascar has not publicly responded to the warning. But its leader, Colonel Michaël Randrianirina, has recently repeated his support for stronger ties between Russia and African countries — a sign that the island’s pivot towards Moscow is unlikely to slow down soon.

What the US warned — and who said it

Brennan is the number two at AFRICOM, the US military command responsible for American operations across Africa. He spoke at a briefing held by the US State Department’s Africa Regional Media Hub, after a visit to the region in early November to discuss maritime security and defence cooperation.

His delegation met President Randrianirina, armed forces minister General Ely Maminirina Razafitombo and chief of defence General Démosthène Pikulas, according to the US embassy.

Brennan’s central warning was about what he called the “Sahel model” — Russia’s growing military partnerships with governments in West Africa that have moved away from Western allies.

“We are concerned about Russia wanting to proliferate [the Sahel model] elsewhere across the continent,” Brennan told reporters.

“Madagascar sits in a location that is extremely important, as is Mozambique, and we don’t want to see those models be applied in those two locations,” he added.

He also stressed that Washington was not ordering Madagascar to cut ties with anyone. US partners were “free to partner with whom they wish”, he said — but they should understand the potential risks of the choice.

The warning was reported by the BBC on 11 November, and it was quickly picked up by news outlets across Africa. It is the clearest public signal yet that Washington sees Madagascar’s drift towards Moscow as a problem, not just a curiosity.

What is the “Sahel model”?

To understand the warning, it helps to understand what happened in the Sahel — the vast belt of land that runs across Africa just south of the Sahara Desert.

In recent years, military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have cut their military ties with Western countries, including France and the United States, and turned to Russia for help fighting jihadist groups. The three countries blamed their former Western partners for failing to contain the violence.

Russia stepped in with military instructors, weapons and, in some cases, fighters linked to the Africa Corps, the successor to the Wagner mercenary group. In return, Moscow gained influence in countries that had once looked to Paris and Washington.

But Brennan’s argument is that the deal has not worked. He described Russia’s counter-terrorism model in the Sahel as “largely ineffective” — and the numbers back up the claim that violence has not fallen. According to an August assessment by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, a research institution inside the US Department of Defense, 9,928 people were killed in attacks linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel over the preceding year. That was 42 per cent of all such deaths across Africa, out of a continental total of 23,872. Nearly 49,000 people have died in Sahel militant violence since 2022, the centre said.

In other words, the three Sahel governments changed partners — but the attacks continued. That is the record Brennan is asking Madagascar to look at before it goes further down the same road.

There is a second part to the American concern. US officials argue that Russia’s model also weakens the countries that adopt it, because it replaces professional, accountable security partnerships with opaque deals that answer to Moscow rather than to the country’s own institutions. The Sahel governments reject that view and say Russia respects their sovereignty in a way Western partners did not. The argument is far from settled — but it is now being made in public, about Madagascar, for the first time.

How Russia’s role in Madagascar has grown

Russia’s military relationship with Madagascar is new, and it has grown quickly since the island’s political upheaval last year.

In October 2025, the military seized power in Madagascar after weeks of protests. Colonel Michaël Randrianirina assumed power following the departure of former President Andry Rajoelina. Since then, Russia has supplied the island nation with weapons and military instructors.

The relationship moved into public view in December 2025, when a Russian military aircraft reportedly arrived in Madagascar carrying 40 personnel and 43 crates of weapons. The details were provided by the country’s National Assembly Speaker, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, to the news agency Bloomberg.

In January 2026, Russian instructors began training Madagascar’s 1st Airborne Battalion, alongside a weapons transfer. A month later, in February 2026, Randrianirina travelled to Moscow and met President Vladimir Putin. It was the first official visit to Russia by a Malagasy leader in nearly 50 years.

The momentum continued at the Russia-Africa summit in October 2026, where Madagascar and Russia signed several cooperation agreements covering defence, tourism and trade.

Put together, the timeline tells a clear story: within a year of the takeover, Madagascar has gone from having almost no military relationship with Russia to hosting Russian instructors, receiving Russian weapons and signing defence agreements with Moscow. That is the pace of change that has caught Washington’s attention.

Why Madagascar matters: the Mozambique Channel

Madagascar is easy to overlook on a map. It is a large island in the Indian Ocean, off the south-east coast of Africa, far from the headlines about the Sahel or the Middle East. But its location is exactly why the United States is paying attention.

The island sits beside the Mozambique Channel, the stretch of water that separates Madagascar from mainland Africa. The channel is a major route for international shipping and trade, carrying vessels between the Indian Ocean and the ports of southern and eastern Africa. Anything that threatens shipping there matters far beyond the region.

Brennan raised exactly that concern. He said it was vital to prevent Islamic State-linked militants in northern Mozambique — and other hostile actors — from threatening maritime activity in the channel. He pointed to recent piracy-related incidents along the Mozambican coast and said militant groups in northern Mozambique were adapting their tactics, including developing greater maritime capabilities.

That is the other half of the American warning. It is not only about who trains Madagascar’s soldiers. It is about whether the waters around the island stay safe for the ships that carry goods between Asia, Africa and Europe. A security model that fails on land, in Washington’s view, could also leave the sea lanes exposed.

Madagascar and Mozambique are both, in Brennan’s words, “extremely important locations” for global trade. The United States wants both countries inside a security system it trusts — and it worries that Russia’s growing presence could pull them in a different direction.

What Washington wants — and what it is not doing

It is worth being clear about what the United States has and has not done.

Washington has warned Madagascar, publicly, about the risks of the Russian model. It has sent a senior general to the island to make the case in person. And it has framed the issue around trade and maritime security, not only around great-power rivalry — a message aimed as much at Madagascar’s neighbours and at shipping companies as at Antananarivo itself.

What Washington has not done is threaten punishment. No sanctions, penalties or coercive measures have been signalled against Madagascar. Brennan’s own words left the door open: partners are free to choose, but they should know what they are choosing.

That restraint matters, because the United States has limited leverage. Madagascar’s government came to power through a military takeover, and its leader has made clear he values the Russian relationship. Public warnings may not change minds in Antananarivo — but they do put other countries on notice, and they make the contest for influence in the Indian Ocean visible.

Russia, for its part, has said nothing publicly about Brennan’s warning. Moscow has consistently presented its African partnerships as respectful cooperation between sovereign states, and it points to the Sahel governments’ own choice to invite Russian help. Whether that help is actually making anyone safer is the question at the heart of this dispute.

What happens next

Three things are worth watching in the weeks ahead.

First, whether Madagascar responds. So far, Antananarivo has stayed silent on Brennan’s comments. A public reply — or a new defence announcement with Moscow — would show whether the warning has had any effect at all.

Second, whether the United States follows words with action. Brennan’s visit was about maritime security and defence cooperation. If Washington offers Madagascar concrete help — training, equipment, coastguard support — it would be competing with Russia on substance, not just on rhetoric.

Third, what happens in the Mozambique Channel. If militant groups in northern Mozambique keep building the ability to operate at sea, the shipping route will become a bigger concern for every country that trades through it — including China, India and the Gulf states, not just the United States. That would turn a bilateral warning into a wider regional security question.

For now, the picture is simple: a small island nation, a new military government, a growing Russian presence — and a public American warning that the model Madagascar is copying has already failed somewhere else. The island’s answer, when it comes, will say a lot about where the Indian Ocean’s smaller states see their future.

Frequently asked questions

Why is the US warning Madagascar about Russia?

The United States says Russia’s military partnerships with the military-led governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — the “Sahel model” — have failed to improve security there, and it does not want the same approach spreading to Madagascar and Mozambique.

Who delivered the warning?

Lieutenant General John Brennan, deputy commander of US Africa Command (AFRICOM). He spoke at a State Department Africa Regional Media Hub briefing on Tuesday, 10 November 2026, after visiting Madagascar and Mozambique.

How close are Madagascar and Russia now?

Russia has supplied weapons and military instructors since the military takeover in October 2025. A Russian aircraft reportedly delivered 40 personnel and 43 crates of weapons in December 2025, Russian instructors began training the 1st Airborne Battalion in January 2026, and the two countries signed defence, tourism and trade agreements at the Russia-Africa summit in October 2026.

Why does Madagascar’s location matter?

Madagascar sits beside the Mozambique Channel, a major shipping route between the Indian Ocean and southern and eastern Africa. The US says Islamic State-linked militants in northern Mozambique are developing the ability to threaten shipping there.

Has Madagascar responded to the warning?

Not publicly. President Michaël Randrianirina has recently repeated his support for stronger ties between Russia and African countries, and no sanctions or penalties have been announced by Washington.

Sources

• BBC News — “US warns Madagascar over growing military ties with Russia”, by Basillioh Rukanga, published 11 November 2026 (as reported by AAN TV: https://www.aantv.org/article/us-warns-madagascar-over-growing-military-ties-with-russia)
• The Africa Media — “How Madagascar’s Military Ties With Russia Are Raising US Concerns”, published 11 November 2026: https://theafricamedia.com/how-madagascars-military-ties-with-russia-are-raising-us-concerns/
• Streamline Feed — “US warns Madagascar against Russian security model, citing Sahel”, published 11 November 2026: https://streamlinefeed.co.ke/news/us-warns-madagascar-against-russian-security-model-citing-sahel

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.