Eurozone inflation to stay above target until 2028, ECB survey finds

Prices in the eurozone are expected to stay above the European Central Bank’s 2% target until 2028, according to a new survey of professional forecasters published by the bank on 30 October 2026.

The survey now puts headline inflation — the broad measure of how fast prices are rising — at 3.0% for 2026 and 2.6% for 2027, before it falls back to 2.0% in 2028. The 2026 forecast rose by 0.3 percentage points, from 2.7%, and the 2027 forecast rose by 0.4 points, from 2.2%.

Higher energy prices are the main reason, the bank said, along with their knock-on effects on other prices. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, is forecast at 2.4% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028 — still above target.

The survey gathered the views of 52 forecasters in Europe between 2 and 7 October. It is a survey of outside experts, not the ECB’s own forecast. Growth was also revised up: the eurozone economy is now expected to grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in both 2027 and 2028.

There was some reassurance on pay. Wage growth is expected to slow from 3.3% this year to 3.1% next year and 2.8% in 2028, and forecasters do not expect a wage-price spiral, in which rising pay and rising prices keep pushing each other up.

The results came a day after the ECB left interest rates unchanged on 29 October. Reuters reported that sharply higher energy costs could push the bank to raise rates again in December.

Why it matters

For households and businesses across the 21 countries that use the euro, the survey means price rises are likely to stay uncomfortably high for longer than hoped. If the ECB raises borrowing costs again, loans and mortgages would become more expensive; if it waits, everyday prices would keep climbing faster than its target allows.

What happens next

The ECB’s own staff will publish fresh economic projections on 18 December 2026, and the bank’s December rate decision will show whether it acts. Energy prices will be closely watched: the survey found the extra effects of the energy shock are mainly expected in 2027, but that wider second-round effects should stay limited.

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.

Sources

• https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261030~e92c3c838c.en.html (European Central Bank, 30 October 2026)
• https://985theriver.com/2026/10/30/ecb-survey-sees-higher-inflation-in-coming-quarters/ (Reuters, 30 October 2026)