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November 7, 2026

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Sports

Ballon d’Or betting storm: police contacted after 12 accounts ‘called’ the exact top five

Faizan Altaf

Harry Kane’s Ballon d’Or win was supposed to be the end of the story. Instead, it has become the start of a very different one.

Days after Kane was crowned the best footballer in the world at a ceremony in London, the organisers of the award, France Football, opened an investigation into suspicious betting and contacted the police. The reason was a set of bets that matched the final result with remarkable precision — not just the winner, but the exact order of the top five players.

According to an investigation by French outlet Upside, 12 accounts on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, wagered more than $264,000 on the outcome before the ceremony. The bets generated close to $200,000 in profit. What made investigators take notice was how the money was placed, when the accounts were created, and how closely the predictions matched the result announced on stage.

Nothing has been proven yet. No leak has been confirmed, no one has been charged, and the result stands.

At a glance

What happened: France Football opened an investigation and contacted the police after 12 Polymarket accounts wagered more than $264,000 on the 2026 Ballon d’Or and made close to $200,000 in profit by backing the exact top-five order.

Why it matters: The Ballon d’Or is built on secrecy — only a small circle of people is supposed to know the result before the ceremony. If that secret reached bettors, the award’s credibility is at stake.

What happens next: France Football’s investigation continues, police have been contacted, and investigators are following the money — including one transaction traced to a French financial platform.

The night Kane won

The 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony took place at the London Palladium on Monday, 26 October. Harry Kane, the Bayern Munich and England striker, was announced as the winner, ahead of Kylian Mbappe of Real Madrid in second place, Lamine Yamal of Barcelona in third, Rodri in fourth and Lionel Messi in fifth.

It was a famous night for Kane and for English football. He became the first Englishman to win the Ballon d’Or since Michael Owen in 2001, ending a wait of 25 years. The full voting breakdown, published days later, showed how close the contest had been: Kane finished with 1,055 points, only 28 ahead of Mbappe on 1,027. Yamal finished third with 881 points.

Kane’s case was built on a remarkable year. He scored 73 goals for club and country, won a second successive Bundesliga title with Bayern Munich, and scored six goals at the World Cup as England finished third.

What the investigation found

The investigation was carried out by Upside, and its findings were reported in English on 30 October, with further coverage on 31 October. Upside’s co-founder, Raphael Pautard, said his team had identified 12 Polymarket accounts that bet on the Ballon d’Or outcome before the ceremony.

The headline figures are striking. More than $264,000 — about £197,000 — was wagered by the 12 accounts, generating close to $200,000, or about £149,000, in profit. But investigators were struck by four patterns in how the accounts behaved.

First, the accounts were all new. Every one of the 12 was created between 1 and 20 October. Seven had never placed a bet on any other market. Six placed their first wager within 15 minutes of registering. Most people who use a prediction market build up a history over time. These accounts appeared, bet heavily on one event, and — in several cases — did nothing else.

Second, the accounts did not spread their money around. A normal bettor who is unsure of the result might back several different outcomes to reduce the risk. These accounts did the opposite. They concentrated their money on one precise scenario: Kane first, Mbappe second, Yamal third, Rodri fourth and Messi fifth. Every position matched the official result.

Third, the accounts behaved in similar ways. Upside’s analysis found financial connections between some of them, and its later blockchain analysis divided them into three groups. Connections were found within some of the groups, but no financial link between all three groups has been established. Whether one person, several people, or a wider network was involved is still unknown.

Fourth, at least one account showed a pattern of moving money between markets. One account bought contracts predicting a Kane win at 37 cents, sold them at 67 cents, and then moved the funds into bets on specific finishing positions — including Yamal finishing third.

Taken one by one, each of these patterns could have an innocent explanation. Together, they were enough for France Football to open an investigation and contact the police.

What is Polymarket, and how did the bets work?

Polymarket is a prediction market, a website where users buy and sell contracts based on what they think will happen in the future — elections, sports results, awards, and much more. The contracts are priced in cents, usually between 1 cent and 99 cents. If the event happens as predicted, the contract pays out at $1. If it does not, the contract is worth nothing.

Polymarket is based in the United States and uses cryptocurrency. It does not require the kind of identity checks that a traditional bookmaker would carry out, which makes it harder to know who is behind an account. That anonymity is part of the reason the investigation has focused on following the money through blockchain records — the public ledger of cryptocurrency transactions — rather than simply asking the platform for names.

Upside said its team traced one transaction to a French financial platform, which reportedly confirmed it had identified the individual behind one of the funding accounts. That person has not been named. The identification does not prove that any crime took place, but it gives investigators a lead to follow.

Why the precision matters

Backing Kane to win would not, by itself, have been suspicious. Kane was one of the leading contenders, and many people expected him to win. The concern is not the winner. It is the rest of the ranking.

Predicting the exact order of five players is far harder than picking a winner. There are many possible combinations, and the gaps between the players were small. Mbappe finished only 28 points behind Kane. Getting all five positions right, in the right order, is the kind of prediction that makes investigators ask whether the bettor knew something the public did not.

There is, however, an important detail that some early reports glossed over. Upside’s more detailed analysis states that only one of the 12 accounts placed bets on all five exact positions. The others backed particular parts of the ranking, including the order of the players behind Kane.

It is also worth remembering that a successful prediction, even a very precise one, does not by itself prove a leak. People can be lucky, or good at reading the signs. The question for the investigation is whether there is evidence that goes beyond luck — a connection to someone inside the circle of people who knew the result, or a trail of money that leads back to that circle.

What is not proven

This part of the story needs to be stated clearly, because it is easy to get lost in the excitement of a scandal.

No leak has been proven. There is no established evidence that the Ballon d’Or vote was manipulated, or that the rankings were altered. France Football has not said that anyone inside the organisation passed on the result. The police have been contacted and an investigation has been opened, but no one has been charged, and no findings have been announced.

No player has been accused of wrongdoing. There is no evidence that Kane, Mbappe, Yamal, Rodri or Messi was involved in the betting or knew anything about it. The result stands, and Kane remains the winner. The investigation is about whether confidential information reached bettors — not about whether the players deserved their places.

France Football has been approached for comment, and the organisation confirmed on Friday afternoon that an investigation had been opened. The exact timing of the police contact has been reported slightly differently in different accounts, but the central fact is not in dispute: the organisers have involved the police and are treating the matter seriously.

A familiar problem

This is not the first time the Ballon d’Or’s secrecy has been breached. In 2024, Rodri’s victory over Vinicius Junior leaked before the ceremony in Paris. Real Madrid, convinced that Vinicius had lost, boycotted the event entirely — no players, no coaches, no delegation. The club’s absence overshadowed Rodri’s win and embarrassed the organisers.

France Football tightened its procedures after that episode. The result was supposed to be kept within a tight circle, with only a handful of people knowing the outcome in advance.

The 2026 case suggests those tighter procedures were not enough — or that the leak, if there was one, came from somewhere the procedures did not cover. It is also possible that the information did not come from France Football at all. The voting involves 100 journalists in 100 countries, and a person who spoke to enough voters could piece together a good guess at the final order without ever seeing the official list.

How the vote works

The Ballon d’Or is football’s most prestigious individual prize. It has been organised by France Football since 1956, and it is awarded each year to the best male and female players in the world, based on their performances over the previous season.

The men’s winner is chosen by a panel of 100 journalists, one from each of the top 100 countries in the FIFA world rankings. Each journalist selects their top 10 players. Points are awarded on a sliding scale: 15 points for first place, 12 for second, 10 for third, then 8, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 for the remaining places. The player with the most points wins.

This system explains why the 2026 result was so close. Kane received the maximum 15 points on 40 ballots — 40 per cent of the voters put him first. Mbappe was first on 23 ballots. A handful of ballots going the other way would have changed the winner.

The system also explains why the exact top five matters so much. The journalists’ ballots are secret, and the final ranking is compiled by France Football. Until the ceremony, only the organisers know the full order. That secrecy is part of the drama of the event — the winner is revealed live, on stage. It is also what makes the award vulnerable.

What happens next

The investigation is still at an early stage. France Football has opened its own inquiry and contacted the police. Upside has passed its findings to the organisers, including the blockchain transactions and wallet addresses behind the accounts. Yardbarker reported on 31 October that the Amaury Group, which owns France Football, had also begun proceedings to file a legal complaint over the suspected leak.

It is also possible that the investigation ends without a clear answer. Blockchain analysis can show that accounts are connected, but it cannot always show who controls them. A person identified through a funding platform may have a legitimate explanation — a lucky guess, or a well-informed hunch.

For now, the award itself is unaffected. Kane keeps his trophy, and the voting breakdown stands as published. But the questions raised by the betting will not go away quickly. Football’s biggest individual prize depends on trust — trust that the vote is fair, and trust that the result is a secret until the moment it is announced.

Frequently asked questions

What exactly are the suspicious bets?

Twelve accounts on Polymarket wagered more than $264,000 on the 2026 Ballon d’Or before the ceremony on 26 October. The bets matched the final top-five order — Kane, Mbappe, Yamal, Rodri and Messi — and generated close to $200,000 in profit, according to an investigation by French outlet Upside.

Has a leak been proven?

No. There is no established evidence that the Ballon d’Or result was leaked, and no evidence that the vote was manipulated. France Football has opened an investigation and contacted the police, but no findings have been announced and no one has been charged.

Did Harry Kane or any other player do anything wrong?

There is no evidence that any player was involved in the betting or knew anything about it. Kane remains the winner, and the official result stands.

Why did the accounts look suspicious?

All 12 accounts were created between 1 and 20 October. Seven had never bet on any other market, and six placed their first bet within 15 minutes of registering. The accounts concentrated their money on one precise finishing order instead of spreading it across different outcomes, and Upside found financial connections between some of them.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a prediction market where users buy and sell contracts based on what they think will happen in the future. Contracts are priced in cents, and a contract that predicts the correct outcome pays out at $1. It uses cryptocurrency and does not require the identity checks of a traditional bookmaker.

Has this happened before?

Yes, in a different form. In 2024, Rodri’s Ballon d’Or win over Vinicius Junior leaked before the ceremony, and Real Madrid boycotted the event. France Football tightened its procedures after that, but the 2026 case suggests the result may still have reached people outside the official circle — if a leak is confirmed.

Conclusion

The 2026 Ballon d’Or was meant to be remembered for Harry Kane’s triumph — a first English winner in 25 years, decided by just 28 points. Instead, it may be remembered for the bets that followed it.

Twelve new accounts, more than $264,000 wagered, close to $200,000 in profit, and a prediction that matched the final ranking position for position. Those are the facts as reported by Upside and others. What they mean is still unclear. They could be the footprint of a leak from inside football’s most secretive vote, or the work of a small group of sharp, lucky, or well-connected bettors.

Until it does, two things are worth holding on to. The first is that no one has been found guilty of anything, and the result stands. The second is that the questions raised by this case go beyond one award. As prediction markets grow, every secret in sport becomes a betting opportunity. The Ballon d’Or has learned that lesson twice in three years.

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.

Sources

Faizan Altaf

Faizan Altaf is the founder and author of findivoza.com, a news blog covering world, Pakistan, business, technology, health and sport in plain English. He writes for general readers who want clear, trustworthy news without jargon. His work focuses on explaining what happened, why it matters, and what to watch next.

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