China’s Unannounced Taiwan Drills: Over 100 Warships, Two Carriers and a Message Beijing Won’t Explain

China may be running its biggest military exercise around Taiwan in years — and it has not told anyone. That is the warning from a new report by two respected American research groups, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), published on 6 November 2026.

According to the report, more than 100 Chinese navy and coast guard ships have gathered in the Western Pacific, along with two aircraft carriers and dozens of warplanes. The build-up is larger than China’s last named exercise around Taiwan, “Justice Mission 2025”, held in December 2025. But unlike that exercise, Beijing has not announced this one, named it, or explained what it is doing.

Taiwan is watching closely. So are the United States, Japan and the Philippines. The question everyone is asking is simple: is this a drill, a warning, or a rehearsal for cutting Taiwan off from the rest of the world?

What happened: the build-up in numbers

The first public sign came on 3 November, when Joseph Wu, the secretary-general of Taiwan’s National Security Council, said that more than 100 vessels from China’s navy (the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN) and its coast guard were operating in the Western Pacific. Just a week earlier, the number had been 53. In seven days, it had nearly doubled.

The ISW-AEI report, published on 6 November, laid out what those ships appeared to be doing. It described two main groups:

• Between Taiwan and Guam: four task forces from three different Chinese military regions — the Eastern, Northern and Southern Theater Commands — operating in the open ocean between Taiwan and the American island of Guam. This group included the Liaoning carrier strike group, which sailed into the Western Pacific through the Basilan Strait in the Philippines between 23 and 26 October.
• Around Taiwan itself: at least six China Coast Guard vessels, plus an unspecified number of navy ships, positioned close to the island.

In the air, the pressure was just as clear. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense detected 49 Chinese military aircraft sorties around Taiwan on 2 November — the highest daily total recorded in 2026. Thirty-one of those aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait or entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, the area of sky Taiwan monitors for incoming aircraft. Thirty-six of the sorties flew south of Taiwan, in the direction of the warships operating in the Western Pacific.

Satellite images added another piece to the puzzle. On 2 November, China’s newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, was seen leaving its base at Sanya on the island of Hainan, heading east — possibly towards southern Taiwan. At least three other major warships left the same base between 26 October and 2 November.

Put together, the report said, the deployment involved two of China’s three aircraft carriers and at least four of its ten guided-missile cruisers — a large share of the Chinese navy’s most powerful ships.

Why experts think this is a drill to isolate Taiwan

The ISW and AEI do not say for certain that China is running an exercise. They say China “may be” doing so, based on the scale, the positions and the pattern of the ships and aircraft. But they argue the evidence points strongly in that direction.

The key clue is where the ships are. One group sits close around Taiwan. The other sits far out to sea, between Taiwan and Guam — exactly where outside help would have to come from if Taiwan were ever cut off. That is the shape of an isolation operation: one ring to close around the island, and a second force further out to keep help away.

This pattern matches China’s earlier exercises. In “Justice Mission 2025” in December 2025, Chinese forces simulated blocking shipping routes to Taiwan’s main ports — Kaohsiung, Keelung and Hualien.

What is different this time is the scale and the coordination. The current build-up is bigger than Justice Mission 2025, according to the report. It also involves forces from three theatre commands working together — the Eastern, Northern and Southern commands. That is rare. Since 2022, China’s big exercises aimed at Taiwan have mostly been run by the Eastern Theater Command alone, the command responsible for Taiwan. Bringing in ships from all three coastal commands suggests an effort to practise a single, far-seas operation with the navy’s best surface ships.

Su Tzu-yun, a defence expert at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, described the surge as a “quiet exercise” — intense pressure without a formal announcement.

The silence is the point

Perhaps the most striking thing about this build-up is what China has not said. Beijing has not announced a major exercise, named one, or explained the movements. That breaks with recent practice. China normally announces and names its big exercises aimed at Taiwan, and it has done so for the last four of them.

The ISW report says this silence may be deliberate, and it may serve two purposes.

First, by not calling it an exercise, Beijing can present the ships as simply being there — routine, normal, nothing special. That creates the impression that the Chinese navy can surround Taiwan at will, any time, without warning.

Second, it shortens the warning time. If China can move from a normal peacetime posture to a combat-ready one without announcing anything, other countries have less time to spot the change and respond. The report warns this could reduce the time Taiwan and its partners have to detect preparations for a blockade or an invasion.

The report’s authors put it plainly: the movements “likely serve the dual purpose of preparing for a real isolation campaign while aiming to create informational effects that erode Taiwan’s confidence in its own defense and the ability of its allies and partners to support it.”

In plain language: the ships are practising, and the message is also the practice.

Why now: elections, APEC and a busy season

The timing matters. Taiwan votes in local elections — the “nine-in-one” elections — on 28 November, less than three weeks after the build-up was spotted. Taiwan’s National Police Agency said on 4 November that it was investigating nine cases of suspected foreign interference in the elections, and four of them had already led to charges. President William Lai Ching-te warned the same day that online disinformation and cyberattacks aimed at influencing voters would increase before the vote.

Taiwan’s National Security Bureau has said it is investigating cyberattacks suspected of coming from China against Puma Shen, a candidate for mayor of Taipei from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. The bureau says China has sharply increased cyberattacks against Taiwan in recent years. Taiwan faced an average of 2.63 million cyberattacks a day in 2025 — more than double the number reported in 2023.

There is also a seasonal pattern. Taiwan’s defence ministry said on 15 October that it was watching for large-scale Chinese exercises as the November-to-December peak drill season approached. China has held at least one big encirclement-style exercise around Taiwan in each year from 2023 to 2025, but had not held one so far in 2026 — until now, perhaps.

And there is a diplomatic calendar. China hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November, where China’s leader Xi Jinping is expected to meet US President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. A show of military strength in the week before that meeting is hard to read as a coincidence.

What a blockade of Taiwan would mean

To understand why this build-up worries people, it helps to understand what Taiwan is and what it depends on.

Taiwan is a self-governing island of about 23 million people. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has never ruled out using force to take it. Taiwan’s government says only its own people can decide its future. The United States does not formally recognise Taiwan as a country, but it is Taiwan’s main arms supplier and has said it would help Taiwan defend itself.

Taiwan is also important to the whole world in ways that go beyond politics:

• Energy: Taiwan imports about 96 percent of the energy it uses, according to Taiwan’s Energy Administration. Almost all of its oil, gas and coal arrives by sea. If ships could not reach Taiwan’s ports, its power stations and factories would run short within weeks.
• Computer chips: Taiwan makes most of the world’s most advanced computer chips, the tiny components inside phones, computers, cars and weapons. A blockade that stopped chip exports would hit factories around the world.
• Shipping: Taiwan sits next to one of the busiest shipping lanes on Earth. Much of the trade between East Asia and the rest of the world passes through the waters around it.

That is why a rehearsal for isolating Taiwan gets so much attention. A blockade would not need a single shot to be fired to cause serious damage. Cutting off fuel, food and trade would squeeze the island — and send shockwaves through the global economy.

Taiwan knows this. Its defence ministry said in its 2026 China Military Power Report that Chinese exercises are increasingly focused on the “joint blockade and control” of Taiwan’s air and sea routes. The same report said China’s ability to launch a full-scale amphibious invasion — landing troops on Taiwan’s beaches — was “still insufficient”. In other words, a blockade is the more realistic threat right now.

Taiwan has been preparing. Officials have run tabletop exercises for a siege, tested ways to escort supply ships, reroute cargo to different ports and manage fuel reserves. Its coast guard has tracked a steady rise in Chinese government ships sailing near the island — 85 visits in May and June 2026, compared with 45 in the same months last year.

Taiwan has also been spending more on defence. Its military spending rose 14 percent in 2025 to $18.2 billion, about 2.1 percent of its economy, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. And it recorded 3,764 Chinese aircraft incursions into its air defence identification zone in 2025, a rise of 22.4 percent from 2024, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

How Taiwan and its partners are responding

Taiwan’s defence ministry says it is monitoring the Chinese forces closely and will respond appropriately. Joseph Wu’s decision to publish the ship numbers on 3 November was itself a signal: Taipei wanted the world to see what was happening.

The United States has not made a formal public statement about this specific build-up at the time of writing. But the pattern is familiar. In past exercises, Washington has said it was “seriously concerned” and urged restraint. The ISW report is itself part of the American response — a public, detailed account of what the ships are doing, published so that the activity cannot pass unnoticed.

What happens next

Three things will tell us whether this was a drill, a warning or something more.

First, whether China announces anything. If Beijing names an exercise in the coming days, that would confirm what analysts suspect — and it would also restore the normal pattern, in which exercises are declared in advance. If it stays silent, the “quiet exercise” reading grows stronger.

Second, whether the ships stay or go home. A drill ends. A permanent presence does not. If the carriers and task forces remain in the Western Pacific for weeks, it will suggest something more lasting than a single exercise.

Third, what happens at APEC on 18 and 19 November. The summit in Shenzhen brings Xi Jinping, Donald Trump and Lee Jae Myung to the same table. What is said there — and what is not said — about Taiwan will shape how the region reads this build-up.

For now, the facts are these: more than 100 Chinese warships and coast guard vessels are in the Western Pacific, two aircraft carriers are at sea, dozens of warplanes are flying around Taiwan, and Beijing has said nothing at all. That silence may be the loudest message of all.

Frequently asked questions

Is China invading Taiwan?

No. There is no sign of an invasion. What analysts believe is happening is a large military exercise — a rehearsal — that simulates surrounding and isolating Taiwan. An invasion would look very different: troop ships, landing craft and a massive build-up of soldiers. None of that has been reported.

What is a blockade of Taiwan?

A blockade means stopping ships and aircraft from reaching or leaving Taiwan. If Taiwan’s ports were closed, the island could not import fuel, food and raw materials, and could not export the computer chips the world depends on. China has practised this in earlier exercises, and analysts believe this build-up is another rehearsal.

Why hasn’t China announced the exercise?

That is the unusual part. China normally announces and names its big exercises around Taiwan. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War say the silence may be deliberate — to make the build-up look routine, to suggest China can isolate Taiwan whenever it wants, and to give other countries less warning time.

How is Taiwan responding?

Taiwan’s military is tracking the Chinese ships and aircraft, and its National Security Council published the ship numbers to make the build-up public. Taiwan has also been preparing for a possible blockade for years, with plans to protect fuel supplies, escort cargo ships and reroute trade.

Could this lead to a war?

Nobody can say for certain, but most analysts see this as pressure and signalling, not a step towards war. China’s goal, according to the ISW report, is to wear down Taiwan’s confidence and show that it can cut the island off. That is a serious threat, but it is not the same as starting a war — and a war over Taiwan would be costly for everyone, including China.

Conclusion

China’s quiet build-up around Taiwan is a reminder that the world’s most dangerous flashpoint does not always announce itself. More than 100 warships, two aircraft carriers and a record number of warplane flights — all without a word of explanation from Beijing.

The analysts who spotted it believe the exercise, if that is what it is, is designed to show that China can isolate Taiwan at will. Taiwan’s answer has been to watch, to count, and to tell the world what it sees. What happens next depends on whether the ships go home, whether Beijing breaks its silence, and what is said when world leaders meet in Shenzhen in two weeks’ time.

For the people of Taiwan, and for everyone who depends on the chips, ships and trade that flow through the Taiwan Strait, those answers cannot come soon enough.

Sources

• https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-november-6-2026/
• https://military.einnews.com/region/china-taiwan-hong-kong
• https://asiadaily.org/news/17984/
• https://nepalaaja.com/posts/chinas-persistent-military-pressure-around-taiwan-risks-normalizing-regional-crisis
• https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3366011/mainland-china-stepping-preparations-taiwan-blockade-report-says

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.