Oil Prices Fall Again as Brent Drops Below $95 — the $8 Billion Hormuz Deal Behind the Slide

Oil prices fell sharply again on Monday, 9 November 2026, as traders bet that the United States and Iran may be moving towards a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil travels. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped more than 3% to around $94 a barrel, extending one of the steepest slides in oil market history.

The fall came on the same day that Qatar’s prime minister arrived at the White House carrying an Iranian proposal for an interim deal. Under the reported terms, Iran would reopen the strait and stop attacking Gulf tankers, while Washington would lift its blockade and release $8 billion in Iranian money frozen in Qatar. Neither government has confirmed the terms, and senior American officials are reported to oppose them — but the market moved anyway, because even the possibility of peace is enough to take the “war premium” out of the oil price.

For Pakistan, which imports almost all of its oil, the slide matters. Cheaper crude usually means a smaller import bill and, in time, lower petrol and diesel prices at home — though the rupee-dollar exchange rate and government taxes decide how much of the benefit actually reaches the pump.

What happened on Monday

Brent crude fell 3.6% to $94.00 a barrel in morning trading in New York, according to OilPrice.com. By early afternoon in London it was trading at $94.83, down $3.49 on the day, and later reports put it at $94.23, down 4.2%. The exact number moved through the day, but the direction did not: oil ended the day more than 3% lower.

American oil fell too. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main US benchmark, dropped about 3% to around $88 a barrel. US natural gas moved the other way, rising 0.8% to $3.02 per million British thermal units.

The trigger was politics, not supply. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump told CNN that renewed American strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” if negotiations produced a strong agreement. It was his clearest signal yet that he prefers a diplomatic way out of a war that began in February and has already pushed oil prices up and down for nine months.

On Monday, Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, met Trump at the White House. He was carrying an Iranian proposal for an interim deal centred on the Strait of Hormuz. Traders took that as a sign that talks are serious — and sold oil.

The $8 billion deal on the table

The reported terms of the proposal, first described by OilPrice.com citing two diplomatic sources who spoke to Israeli media, are striking in their simplicity.

Under the reported deal, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days and halt its attacks on tankers in the Gulf. In return, the United States would lift its naval and economic blockade of Iran and release $8 billion in Iranian funds that have been frozen in Qatar. Iran would also drop its demand to control the strait and charge ships a fee to pass through it. One thing Tehran is not offering, under these terms, is to put its nuclear programme on the negotiating table.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has said publicly that Iran’s offer to reopen Hormuz within two days stands — on condition that the war ends on all fronts.

But there are three big caveats. First, neither the American nor the Iranian government has confirmed these terms. Second, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that Iran had made “outrageous and ridiculous” demands during negotiations, and that the two sides are not close to a breakthrough. Third, four of Trump’s most senior officials — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Rubio himself, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth — are reported to oppose a deal along these lines.

In other words, the market is celebrating a deal that has not been agreed, by governments that have not confirmed it, over the objections of some of the people who would have to approve it. That is why oil traders are hopeful and nervous at the same time.

Why traders are hopeful — and why they are still nervous

Oil prices carry what traders call a “risk premium”: extra money buyers pay because they fear supply could be cut off. When war threatens the Strait of Hormuz, that premium grows, because so much of the world’s oil passes through it. When peace looks more likely, the premium shrinks, and prices fall. That is what happened on Monday.

Trump’s words mattered because he is the one who would order any new strikes. Telling CNN that new strikes are “highly unlikely” was read by the market as a signal that the war will not get bigger while talks continue.

But the nervousness is easy to understand, because the shooting has not stopped. Over the weekend, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said three oil tankers had exploded and caught fire in the strait after breaking Iranian rules and using unauthorised shipping routes. The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed a strike on Saudi Aramco’s offices in Riyadh on Sunday. Both Washington and Tehran reported attacks on vessels in or near the strait. The waterway is still a dangerous place for a tanker.

There is also history. A similar American-Iranian memorandum reached in Switzerland in May collapsed after an Iranian attack on oil tankers in the strait. Traders remember that. And while the global Brent price fell on Monday, Murban crude — the physical benchmark for Gulf oil actually loaded onto ships — climbed 3.4% to $99.17 in Asian trading. The paper market and the physical market are telling slightly different stories, and the physical market is the one that deals with real ships in a real strait.

A brutal two weeks for oil prices

Monday’s fall did not come out of nowhere. It followed a terrible week for oil. Last week, Brent plunged 16%, its steepest weekly fall since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, touching a two-month low of $93.22 a barrel. Oil has now fallen for two weeks in a row, after a price war broke out between Gulf producers.

The slide began after the midterm elections, when investors bet that a weakened Trump, facing a Democratic Congress able to restrain his military options, would have a greater incentive to seek a negotiated exit from the Iran war. Then Trump told the Financial Times that Washington had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Each signal pushed the price a little lower.

Analysts quoted by The National on Monday said the market is now pricing in a real possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough. “Oil prices are coming under renewed selling pressure as markets increasingly price in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran,” said Noureldeen Al Hammoury of Equiti Group. He added that Brent could face further downward pressure towards the $90–$95 range if de-escalation continues.

Others are looking past the war entirely. JPMorgan said in a report on Friday that oil is headed for a glut, as recovering Middle Eastern oil flows, rising production from other countries, and weak demand push global supply above consumption. If that is right, prices could stay low even if the Hormuz deal falls apart — good news for buyers, bad news for oil-producing countries that depend on high prices.

What is the Strait of Hormuz, and why does it move oil prices?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel of water between Iran and Oman, connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. At its narrowest, it is only about 33 kilometres wide, with shipping lanes just a few kilometres across in each direction.

Before the conflict broke out on 28 February, about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the strait, according to The National. That includes almost all of the oil exported by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iran itself. There is no easy alternative route: pipelines that bypass the strait exist, but they can carry only a fraction of the volume.

That is why any threat to shipping in the strait sends oil prices up, and any sign that the strait will stay open sends them down. It is also why Iran has used the strait as leverage throughout the war — threatening to close it, attacking tankers, and demanding control over who passes through and at what price.

For the countries of the Gulf, the strait is their economic lifeline. For the rest of the world, it is the single most important chokepoint in the global energy system. A deal that guarantees it stays open would remove one of the biggest risks hanging over the world economy. A deal that collapses would put that risk straight back.

What cheaper oil could mean for Pakistan

Pakistan imports almost all of the crude oil and petroleum products it uses, so the world oil price feeds directly into the country’s economy. When Brent is high, Pakistan pays more for every barrel it buys, the import bill grows, and the pressure on the rupee increases. When Brent falls, the opposite happens: the import bill shrinks, and the government has more room to cut petrol and diesel prices.

That does not mean pump prices fall by the same amount, or straight away. The government reviews petrol and diesel prices every two weeks, and the final price at the pump also depends on the rupee’s value against the dollar, taxes, and the margins of refineries and fuel stations. A weaker rupee can wipe out the benefit of cheaper oil entirely. But a sustained fall in Brent to the low $90s, from the much higher levels seen earlier in the war, would still be welcome news for a country that has spent heavily on fuel imports this year.

Cheaper oil also helps in a second way: it eases inflation. Fuel prices feed into the cost of transport, farming, and manufacturing, so lower oil prices can slow the rise in prices across the economy. For households already squeezed by high prices, that matters as much as the number on the petrol station sign.

None of this is guaranteed, of course. If the Hormuz deal collapses and oil spikes again, the benefit disappears just as quickly. But for now, the direction is the one Pakistan would want.

What happens next

Several things to watch in the coming days:

The White House talks. What, if anything, comes out of Trump’s meeting with Qatar’s prime minister? Qatar has been the main mediator between Washington and Tehran, and the $8 billion in frozen Iranian funds sits in Qatari banks — so Doha is at the centre of any deal.

The confirmation question. Will either government confirm the reported terms? Until one of them does, the deal remains a report, not an agreement.

The opposition inside the Trump administration. Bessent, Lutnick, Rubio and Hegseth are reported to oppose a deal along these lines. If they prevail, the talks could stall — and oil would likely jump back up.

The strait itself. Any new attack on a tanker, or any move by Iran to restrict shipping, would remind traders why the risk premium existed in the first place.

For now, the market has made its bet: peace is more likely than it was a week ago. Whether that bet pays off depends on what happens in the White House, in Doha, and in the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz.

Frequently asked questions

Why did oil prices fall on Monday?

Brent crude fell more than 3% to around $94 a barrel after President Trump said new US strikes on Iran were “highly unlikely” if talks make progress, and Qatar’s prime minister arrived at the White House carrying an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traders sold oil because the risk of a wider war — and of the strait being closed — looked smaller.

What is the $8 billion Hormuz deal?

Under terms reported by OilPrice.com, citing two diplomatic sources, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days and stop attacking Gulf tankers. The US would lift its naval and economic blockade and release $8 billion in Iranian funds frozen in Qatar. Iran would drop its demand to control the strait and charge transit fees. Neither government has confirmed the terms.

How much has oil fallen?

Brent fell 16% last week — its worst week since the Covid-19 pandemic began — and then fell more than 3% again on Monday, to around $94 a barrel. Two weeks ago it was trading far higher, with war fears pushing prices up.

Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much?

About 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the strait before the conflict began. It is the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf for the world’s biggest oil exporters, and there is no alternative that can carry the same volume.

Will petrol prices in Pakistan fall?

Possibly, but not automatically. Pakistan imports almost all its oil, so cheaper Brent should ease the import bill and give the government room to cut pump prices at its fortnightly review. But the rupee-dollar rate, taxes and other costs also affect the final price, so the benefit at the pump may be smaller than the fall in Brent.

Is the deal done?

No. The terms have been reported but not confirmed by either government, senior US officials are reported to oppose them, and attacks on shipping in the strait continued over the weekend. A similar memorandum in May collapsed. The deal is a real possibility, not a done deal.

Conclusion

Monday’s fall in oil prices is a bet on peace. Traders looked at Trump’s words, at Qatar’s shuttle diplomacy, and at a reported $8 billion deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and decided the risk of a wider war had fallen. Brent at around $94 a barrel is far from the panic levels of the early war, and if the deal holds, it could go lower still.

But it is only a bet. The terms are unconfirmed, key American officials are said to oppose them, and tankers are still being attacked in the strait. The last time the two sides reached an understanding, it collapsed within weeks. For Pakistan and every other oil-importing country, the hope is that this time is different — and that the world’s most important oil waterway stays open for good.

Sources

• OilPrice.com, “Oil Sinks to $94 as Iran’s $8 Billion Hormuz Deal Heads to Trump”, 9 November 2026: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Sinks-to-94-as-Irans-8-Billion-Hormuz-Deal-Heads-to-Trump.html
• The National, “Oil slumps 3% as Trump plays down prospect of new US attacks on Iran”, 9 November 2026: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/11/09/oil-edges-lower-as-trump-plays-down-prospect-of-new-us-attacks-on-iran/
• Khaleej Times, “Oil slides as Trump signals restraint on Iran despite fresh shipping attacks”, 9 November 2026: https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/oil-slides-as-trump-signals-restraint-on-iran-despite-fresh-shipping-attacks?amp=1
• Financial Express, “Crude oil prices fall 4% as Trump signals US could avoid fresh strikes on Iran”, 9 November 2026: https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/crude-oil-prices-fall-4-as-trump-signals-us-could-avoid-fresh-strikes-on-iran/4380300/

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.