World Food Prices Fall in October as Wheat, Dairy and Meat Get Cheaper — But Sugar Hits Its Highest Level Since December 2024

World food prices fell in October 2026, giving some relief to shoppers after months of high costs. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Friday, 6 November, that its Food Price Index averaged 133.9 points in October, down 1.2 percent from September.

The fall was driven by cheaper cereals, dairy products and meat. World wheat prices dropped after four months of increases, and maize prices eased after hitting a three-year high in September. But the good news was not spread evenly: sugar prices rose for the fourth month in a row to their highest level since December 2024, and vegetable oil prices edged up slightly.

Even after October’s fall, world food prices are still 5.9 percent higher than they were a year ago, and they remain far above the levels seen before the big price surge of 2022. For families in countries that import much of their food, including Pakistan, the direction of world prices matters, because it shapes what flour, cooking oil, sugar and milk cost in local shops.

What is the FAO Food Price Index?

The FAO Food Price Index tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of food commodities traded around the world: cereals, vegetable oils, meat, dairy products and sugar. The index uses the average prices of 2014–2016 as its base, set at 100 points. A reading of 133.9 therefore means world food prices are about 34 percent higher than they were in the middle of the last decade.

The index is published every month by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, based in Rome. Governments, traders and aid agencies watch it closely because it is one of the earliest signals of whether food is getting cheaper or more expensive around the world.

The headline numbers

The October figures, released on 6 November, show a mixed picture:

• Overall index: 133.9 points, down 1.6 points (1.2 percent) from September’s revised level of 135.5.
• Compared with a year ago: 5.9 percent higher, up 7.5 points from October 2025.
• Compared with the peak: still 16.4 percent below the record high reached in March 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent grain and cooking oil prices soaring.

Three of the five groups in the index fell in October: cereals, dairy and meat. Vegetable oils rose only slightly. Sugar rose sharply, and that rise limited how far the overall index could fall.

Cereals: wheat and maize fall, rice rises

The biggest move in October came from cereals. The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 116.8 points, down 4.5 percent from September and 12.6 percent below its level a year ago.

Wheat prices fall after four months of rises

World wheat prices declined in October after rising for four months in a row. The FAO said the fall mainly reflected weak international demand and a better outlook for production, particularly in Argentina, where the harvest is expected to be strong.

Expectations that constraints on Black Sea export flows might ease also pushed prices down, although continuing disruption to Black Sea logistics limited the fall. The Black Sea region, which includes Ukraine and Russia, is one of the world’s most important sources of exported wheat, so anything that affects shipping there moves world prices quickly.

Maize eases from a three-year high

International maize prices also fell. They had reached a three-year high in September, but harvest pressure in the United States, expectations of large supplies from major exporting countries in South America, and renewed hopes of easing tensions in the Black Sea region all weighed on prices in October.

Barley and sorghum prices fell along with wheat and maize. Good crop prospects in Australia put further downward pressure on barley prices in particular.

Rice goes the other way

Rice was the exception among cereals. The FAO All Rice Price Index rose by 1.6 percent in October. Harvest delays in some rice-exporting countries, bad weather and rising costs all pushed rice prices up, even as other grains got cheaper.

Rice matters more than any other grain in Asia, where it is the staple food for billions of people. A rise in world rice prices is therefore felt quickly in the region’s markets.

Vegetable oils: a small rise, led by soybean oil

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 199.2 points in October, up slightly by 0.3 percent from September. The small rise was mainly driven by higher soybean and sunflower oil prices, which more than offset lower rapeseed oil prices, while palm oil prices were almost unchanged.

World soybean oil prices rose to their highest levels since late 2022. The FAO said this was supported by firm demand from the biofuel sector and seasonally falling supplies from South America. Sunflower oil prices bounced back from multi-month lows, helped by tight export supplies from the Black Sea region and continuing logistical problems there.

Palm oil prices moved only slightly in October but stayed well above their levels of a year ago. They were supported by firm global import demand, palm oil’s better price compared with other vegetable oils, and expectations of lower production in the 2026/27 season in the main producing countries of Southeast Asia.

Rapeseed oil prices fell, as supplies rose with the season and demand for biodiesel feedstocks in the European Union came in lower than expected.

Cooking oil is one of the largest food imports for many countries, including Pakistan, which buys most of its palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia. When world vegetable oil prices stay high, as they have at nearly 200 points on the index, the cost reaches kitchen shelves.

Meat: prices fall, but stay above last year’s levels

The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 125.5 points in October, down 1.2 percent from September, but still slightly above its level a year earlier.

Prices fell for pig meat, sheep meat and beef, while poultry meat prices stayed broadly stable.

Pig meat prices fell, led by lower prices in the European Union, where large supplies and few export opportunities weighed on the market amid weak international demand. Sheep meat prices fell further from record highs, as larger seasonal supplies in Australia pushed prices down, although tight export availability kept prices well above last year’s levels.

Beef prices eased slightly, reflecting lower Australian prices and stronger competition in world markets, although heavy rainfall in cattle regions encouraged farmers to keep their animals rather than sell them, which supported prices. Brazilian beef prices stayed broadly stable, as tighter export supplies and stronger demand from the United States offset weaker buying from China.

Poultry meat prices were little changed, with steady international demand balancing large global supplies. In Brazil, export prices were largely unchanged despite import restrictions imposed by some trading partners after outbreaks of Newcastle disease, a serious bird illness, were first detected in the state of Santa Catarina on 18 October. Arrangements that limit trade bans to affected regions, rather than the whole country, helped keep the disruption small.

One note of caution: unlike the other food groups, most of the prices used to calculate the Meat Price Index are not available when the index is first published, so the latest meat figures are a mix of projected and observed prices and can be revised later.

Dairy: butter and cheese cheaper, milk powder dearer

The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 117.8 points in October, down 1.1 percent from September. The index is now 16.9 percent below its level of a year ago.

The October fall was driven by lower international prices for butter and cheese, which more than offset further increases in milk powder prices. Butter and cheese markets weakened because supplies were large and buyers were not in a hurry to buy, particularly in the European Union, where butter stocks are high and cheese supplies are ample, even though milk production growth is slowing. Competitive export supplies from the United States added further downward pressure.

The picture inside the dairy index is uneven. Skim milk powder prices are 45.8 percent higher than in October 2025, while butter prices are 31.1 percent lower and cheese prices 29.3 percent lower than a year ago. Whole milk powder prices are broadly unchanged from last year.

Skim milk powder prices rose sharply across the main exporting regions, supported by steady import demand and limited supplies available for immediate delivery. In the United States, strong demand for non-fat dry milk, combined with competition for milk solids from higher-value dairy protein products, tightened powder supplies despite overall ample milk production. Whole milk powder prices edged higher, as firmer prices in Oceania more than offset a small price fall in Europe.

Sugar: the fourth monthly rise in a row

Sugar was the outlier of the October report. The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 121.3 points, up 6.6 percent from September and 28.8 percent from a year ago. It was the fourth monthly increase in a row, and the highest level since December 2024.

The rise was mainly caused by rain disrupting sugarcane harvesting and crushing in Brazil’s Centre-South region, the world’s most important sugar-producing area. When rain stops the harvest in Brazil, world sugar supplies tighten quickly.

Prices were also pushed up by worries about sugar production in India after below-normal and unevenly spread monsoon rain, and by forecasts of lower production in the European Union and Thailand in the 2026/27 season.

Sugar is one of the most widely used food ingredients in the world, and it is also politically sensitive in many countries. In Pakistan, sugar prices are a regular subject of public debate, and a rise in world prices can add to pressure on local markets.

What about the harvest?

Alongside the price data, the FAO released a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief. It forecasts that world cereal production will fall back from its record level of 2025, but will still reach 2,999 million tonnes in 2026, the second-highest total on record.

That forecast helps explain why cereal prices fell in October. When the world is expected to produce almost as much grain as in a record year, traders worry less about shortages, and prices ease. The risk is that bad weather, war or export restrictions can change that picture quickly, as the world learned in 2022.

What it means for shoppers

The October figures contain both good and bad news for households.

The good news is that the world’s most important staple foods, wheat and maize, are getting cheaper, and dairy products are also falling. If those lower world prices reach local markets, they should ease the cost of bread, flour, animal feed and milk products.

The bad news is that food is still much more expensive than it was a year ago, and sugar is now nearly 29 percent dearer than last October. Vegetable oil prices remain very high, close to double their 2014–2016 average, which keeps cooking costs elevated.

World prices also do not reach local shops immediately or in full. Transport costs, currency movements, import duties, local taxes and the margins of traders and shopkeepers all stand between the world market and the price a family pays. A fall in the world wheat price helps, but it does not guarantee cheaper bread the following week.

For countries that import food, the October report is best read as a small step in the right direction, not a turning point. Prices are still 5.9 percent higher than a year ago, and the March 2022 peak showed how fast they can rise again when a major producing region is hit by war or bad weather.

What to watch next

Several things will decide whether October’s fall continues or reverses.

• The Black Sea: any change in export flows or tensions in the region moves wheat, maize and sunflower oil prices quickly.
• Brazil’s sugar harvest: if rain keeps disrupting cutting and crushing in the Centre-South, sugar prices could rise further.
• The monsoon and the 2026/27 season: production forecasts for India, the European Union and Thailand will shape sugar prices, while harvests in Argentina, Australia and the United States will shape cereal prices.
• Energy costs: fuel prices affect farming, transport and fertiliser, so they feed through into food prices with a delay.
• The next FAO release: the November index, due in early December, will show whether October’s fall was the start of a trend or a one-month pause.

Frequently asked questions

Did world food prices fall in October 2026?

Yes. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.9 points in October 2026, down 1.2 percent from September. Prices fell for cereals, dairy products and meat, while vegetable oils rose slightly and sugar rose sharply.

How much did world food prices fall?

The overall index fell by 1.6 points, or 1.2 percent, from its revised September level. The cereal index fell 4.5 percent, the meat index fell 1.2 percent and the dairy index fell 1.1 percent.

Why did sugar prices rise?

Sugar prices rose 6.6 percent in October, their fourth monthly increase in a row, mainly because rain disrupted sugarcane harvesting and crushing in Brazil’s Centre-South region. Worries about production in India after a poor monsoon, and forecasts of lower output in the European Union and Thailand, added to the pressure.

Are world food prices higher or lower than a year ago?

Higher. The overall index was 5.9 percent above its October 2025 level. But it is still 16.4 percent below the record peak reached in March 2022.

What is the FAO Food Price Index?

It is a monthly measure published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. It tracks changes in the international prices of five groups of food commodities: cereals, vegetable oils, meat, dairy products and sugar. The base period is the 2014–2016 average, set at 100 points.

When is the next FAO food price report?

The FAO publishes the index every month. The November 2026 figures are due in early December 2026.

Conclusion

October brought a rare piece of good news on the cost of living: world food prices fell, led by cheaper wheat, maize, dairy and meat. The drop reflects better harvests, weak import demand and ample supplies in several major producing countries.

But the relief is partial. Sugar prices climbed to their highest in almost two years, vegetable oil prices stayed near historic highs, and overall food prices remain nearly 6 percent above last year. For shoppers, the October numbers are a welcome pause rather than a return to cheap food. Whether the fall continues will depend on harvests in South America and Australia, the weather in Brazil and India, and the fragile state of Black Sea exports.

Sources

• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “FAO Food Price Index”, October 2026, released 6 November 2026 — https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en
• ReliefWeb / FAO, “FAO Food Price Index edges down in October amid subdued demand”, 6 November 2026 — https://reliefweb.int/report/world/fao-food-price-index-edges-down-october-amid-subdued-demand
• Reuters (via Duke FM), “World food prices dip in October, but remain higher than a year ago” by Sybille de La Hamaide, 6 November 2026 — https://duke.fm/2026/11/06/world-food-prices-dip-in-october-but-remain-higher-than-a-year-ago/
• World Grain, “FAO Food Price Index falls in October”, 6 November 2026 — https://www.world-grain.com/articles/23426-fao-food-price-index-falls-in-october

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.