Gunfire still heard in Moyale as 50,000 Ethiopians flee into Kenya

Gunfire was still echoing across the Ethiopia-Kenya border on 30 October, more than a week after fighting broke out in the divided border town of Moyale. By then, up to an estimated 50,000 people had crossed from Ethiopia into northern Kenya, most of them women and children, carrying little more than the clothes they were wearing.

An Associated Press journalist on the Kenyan side recorded bursts of gunfire on 30 October, and reported hearing sporadic shooting almost every day since 22 October. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said arrivals rose from hundreds in the first days to about 2,500 by 23 October, roughly 35,000 by 26 October, and up to an estimated 50,000 by 28 October. The figures come from local authorities, and UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) have both stressed that they remain preliminary, because registration is still under way and more people keep arriving.

Aid agencies are appealing for $8.9 million — about 1.16 billion Kenyan shillings — to support up to 50,000 people for the next three months. At the same time, they are planning for a response covering up to 80,000 people, in case the fighting drives more families across the border.

At a glance

What happened: Fighting between forces of Ethiopia’s Oromia and Somali regional states broke out in Moyale in the third week of October, after a dispute over the raising of a Somali regional flag in an area administered by Oromia. The killing of a 13-year-old girl in the contested zone is widely cited as the trigger. Up to an estimated 50,000 people have since crossed into Kenya, and gunfire was still being heard on 30 October.

Why it matters: Moyale is the main crossing on the road between Addis Ababa and Nairobi, and the only officially designated crossing on the Ethiopia-Kenya border in Marsabit County. The exodus has overwhelmed host communities in one of Kenya’s driest regions, where food, water, shelter and medical care were already scarce. It is also the latest flare-up of a boundary dispute between the Borana and Garre communities that has lasted for decades.

What happens next: UN agencies are rushing emergency supplies to the border and appealing for $8.9 million for three months of food, shelter, water, sanitation and protection. Whether the crisis grows or eases depends on whether the gunfire stops — and on whether Ethiopia’s regional authorities can settle a dispute over land neither side will give up.

A crossing that grew from hundreds to 50,000 in a week

The first people to flee crossed in small numbers. On 22 October, hundreds of people, mainly children and women, arrived in Kenyan Moyale, according to Marsabit County Commissioner Stanley Kamande, speaking to Reuters. The Kenya Red Cross said at the time that no camp was ready to host them.

Within days, the trickle became a flood. By 23 October, at least 2,500 people from Ethiopia were sheltering in the Kenyan town of Moyale, Kamande said. By 26 October, Kenyan officials put the number at about 35,000, and a day later the United Nations said about 36,000 people had crossed. On 28 October, UNHCR said local authorities estimated the figure had reached up to 50,000.

“According to local authorities, up to an estimated 50,000 people have crossed into Kenya,” Fatima Mohammed-Cole, UNHCR’s representative in Kenya, said in a statement on 28 October. “The figure remains fluid as registration and verification efforts continue, amid reports of further crossings.”

IOM gave the same figure a day later. “As of 29 October, an estimated 50,000 people had arrived in Moyale, Marsabit County,” the agency said, adding that the arrivals were staying with local communities along the border and at five temporary sites. “The situation remains fluid, and the numbers of arrivals could increase in the coming days,” said Nomagugu Ncube, IOM’s chief of mission in Kenya.

Counting the arrivals is difficult, officials say, because people keep coming. “Counting exact numbers is difficult due to continuous new arrivals,” Benedict Munywoki, the deputy county commissioner for Moyale Sub-County, told the Associated Press.

Most of those who have fled are women and children, according to UNHCR and IOM. Some are staying with relatives and host communities. Others have sought shelter in schools and churches, or at temporary sites. The Kenya Red Cross said the biggest camp, which was moved out of the town, now holds about 5,000 people, mostly women and children. Marsabit Governor Mohamud Ali visited Odda Mission Church Secondary School in Moyale, where about 4,800 Ethiopian refugees are sheltering. “We are overwhelmed but committed to protecting those who have fled,” he said.

Why Moyale keeps erupting

Moyale is not one town but two, divided by an international border and by a boundary dispute inside Ethiopia itself. On the Ethiopian side, the town is the administrative centre for two districts — one belonging to Oromia region and one to the Somali region. On the Kenyan side, it is the largest town in Marsabit County. The town sits on the main road between Addis Ababa and Nairobi, and its one-stop border post handles traffic on the Cairo-Cape Town highway.

The town also sits on the frontier between the traditional territories of Oromo and Somali peoples. The Borana, who are Oromo, and the Garre, who are Somali, have disputed the boundary around Moyale for decades. The dispute dates back to Ethiopia’s 1995 constitution, which created ethnically defined regional states and left the exact line between Oromia and the Somali region unresolved in places like Moyale.

“The fighting is rooted in a longstanding boundary dispute between the Borana, who are Oromo, and the Garre, who are Somali,” Jalale Getachew Birru, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project’s (ACLED) senior East Africa analyst, told the Associated Press.

This is not the first time the dispute has turned violent. Moyale has seen previous deadly clashes, including confrontations in 2012 and 2017, each time set off by a local incident that ignited tensions the unresolved boundary had kept alive for years.

The latest round followed that pattern. In the third week of October, a Somali regional flag was raised in an area administered by Oromia, in a zone claimed by both regional administrations. The killing of 13-year-old Diqqoo Jaataan Aagaa in the contested zone is widely cited as the immediate trigger. Clashes between security forces from the two regions then spread to seven districts, according to IOM.

Residents said the shooting eased on 26 October, after five days of heavy fighting. But it did not stop. AP journalists reported sporadic gunfire throughout 29 and 30 October, and the agency’s reporter in Moyale said he had heard sporadic gunfire daily since 22 October. Cargo trucks carrying food and fuel remained stranded on both sides of the border crossing, disrupting trade along one of the Horn of Africa’s busiest routes.

What the fighting has cost so far

There is no confirmed overall death toll from the fighting. A hospital official on the Ethiopian side told Reuters on 23 October that at least nine people had been killed. ACLED’s analysis put the same figure at nine killed on the Ethiopian side, and eight people injured on the Kenyan side by stray bullets.

The true human cost is likely to be higher, but it is not yet known. Reporting from the Ethiopian side of the border has been limited, and the casualty figures that exist come from a hospital official and from conflict monitors, not from a full count. What is clear is that the violence has reached across the border: stray bullets have wounded people on the Kenyan side, and families on both sides of the frontier have fled their homes.

The aid response — and why it is stretched

UNHCR has deployed an emergency team to Moyale and is working with the Kenyan government, through the Department of Refugee Services and county authorities, alongside IOM, UNICEF, the World Food Programme (WFP), the Kenya Red Cross Society and other humanitarian partners.

The agency is mobilising emergency relief supplies, including household items and temporary shelter materials, to support nearly 12,000 people, with efforts under way to scale up as needs grow. It is also working with the authorities to find safer accommodation further from the border, where displaced people face risks from insecurity and stray bullets.

“Food remains the most urgent need, alongside safe drinking water, emergency shelter, sanitation and health care,” Mohammed-Cole said.

The joint appeal of $8.9 million, launched by UNHCR together with UNICEF, IOM and WFP, is meant to support up to 50,000 people for three months, covering food, shelter, water and sanitation, registration and protection services, including for children. The World Food Programme is planning food assistance targeting 16,000 people.

What this means for Kenya and the region

For Kenya, the Moyale crisis is a test of a border region that rarely makes national headlines. Marsabit is Kenya’s largest county by area and one of its driest. Its communities are used to drought and to the movement of people across the Ethiopian border, but not to 50,000 arrivals in a single week.

The crisis also arrives at a difficult moment for Ethiopia. The fighting in Moyale is between two of the country’s regional states, not between the federal government and a rebel group, which makes it harder to resolve from Addis Ababa. The dispute is over a boundary that has been contested for three decades, and tensions between the leaders of the two regions have persisted throughout the fighting.

For the wider Horn of Africa, the exodus is a reminder of how quickly a local dispute can become a cross-border humanitarian emergency. Moyale’s position on the Addis Ababa-Nairobi road means that instability there affects trade and movement between two of the region’s largest economies.

What to watch next

Three things will decide how this crisis develops. The first is the gunfire. If the shooting stops and stays stopped, families may begin returning, and the flow of new arrivals will slow. If it continues, the number of displaced people will keep rising. AP’s reporting of gunfire on 30 October suggests the fighting is not over.

The second is the money. The $8.9 million appeal covers up to 50,000 people for three months, but agencies are already planning for 80,000. Whether donors respond quickly will determine whether food, water and shelter reach the camps and host communities before conditions worsen.

The third is the boundary dispute itself. The fighting in Moyale is the latest chapter in a disagreement that has lasted since Ethiopia’s regions were drawn up in 1995. Until Oromia and the Somali region reach a settlement over the boundary — or the federal government imposes one — the town is likely to see more rounds of violence, and more families fleeing across the border.

For readers who want to help, the most direct route is through the aid agencies working on the ground: UNHCR, IOM, UNICEF and the World Food Programme are running the joint appeal, and the Kenya Red Cross Society is supporting the response in Moyale. Anyone in northern Kenya affected by the fighting should follow guidance from Marsabit County authorities and the Kenya Red Cross, and avoid travelling to the border area while shooting is still being reported.

Frequently asked questions

How many people have fled the fighting in Moyale?

Up to an estimated 50,000 people had crossed from Ethiopia into Kenya by 28-29 October, according to local authorities cited by UNHCR and IOM. The figure is an estimate, not a final count: registration and verification were still under way, and more people were still arriving. The number rose from hundreds on 22 October to about 2,500 on 23 October, about 35,000 on 26 October and about 36,000 on 27 October.

What started the fighting?

The latest round broke out in the third week of October, after a Somali regional flag was raised in an area administered by Ethiopia’s Oromia region. The killing of 13-year-old Diqqoo Jaataan Aagaa in the contested zone is widely cited as the immediate trigger. The deeper cause is a long-running boundary dispute between the Borana (Oromo) and Garre (Somali) communities, which dates back to Ethiopia’s 1995 constitution.

Why is Moyale disputed?

Moyale is a town divided by the Ethiopia-Kenya border, and on the Ethiopian side it is administered by two regions at once — Oromia and the Somali region. The boundary between those two regions around Moyale has never been fully settled, and both sides claim parts of the town and its surrounding area. The town has seen previous deadly clashes over the same dispute, including in 2012 and 2017.

How many people have been killed?

There is no confirmed overall death toll. A hospital official on the Ethiopian side told Reuters on 23 October that at least nine people had been killed, and ACLED reported the same figure, along with eight people injured on the Kenyan side by stray bullets. The full human cost is not yet known, because reporting from the Ethiopian side of the border has been limited.

What help is being provided?

UNHCR has deployed an emergency team to Moyale and is mobilising household items and temporary shelter materials for nearly 12,000 people. UNHCR, UNICEF, IOM and the World Food Programme have jointly appealed for $8.9 million to support up to 50,000 people for three months, covering food, shelter, water, sanitation, registration and protection services. Agencies are also planning for up to 80,000 arrivals.

Could more people flee?

Yes. IOM and UNHCR have both said the situation remains fluid and that further arrivals are expected if the fighting continues. Aid agencies are already planning a response for up to 80,000 people, well above the 50,000 the current appeal is built around. Gunfire was still being heard on 30 October, which suggests the fighting had not ended.

Conclusion

In a single week, a dispute over a flag and a contested boundary turned Moyale from a busy border town into a place people were fleeing. Up to 50,000 people — most of them women and children — have crossed into Kenya, and the gunfire that drove them out was still being heard on 30 October.

Behind the numbers are families sheltering in schools and churches, host communities sharing food and water they can barely spare, and aid workers racing to set up camps before more people arrive. The $8.9 million appeal and the planning for 80,000 arrivals show that the agencies on the ground expect this crisis to grow before it shrinks.

Moyale’s dispute is thirty years old, and it will not be settled in a week. But the people fleeing it cannot wait for a settlement. What they need now is food, water, shelter and safety — and a border that stops echoing with gunfire.

This article is for general information and education only. It is not legal or financial advice.

Sources

• https://www.unhcr.org/news/press-releases/unhcr-warns-growing-humanitarian-needs-thousands-flee-ethiopia-kenya (UNHCR, 28 October 2026)
• https://eastleighvoice.co.ke/regional/417994/ethiopian-arrivals-fleeing-moyale-conflict-into-northern-kenya-rise-to-nearly-50000 (The Eastleigh Voice, 30 October 2026)
• https://eastafricanreport.com/2026/10/31/moyale-day-10-refugees-hit-50000-as-gunfire-still-heard-un-plans-for-80000/ (East African Report, 31 October 2026)
• https://eastafricanreport.com/2026/10/30/gunfire-heard-across-ethiopia-border-as-growing-numbers-flee-into-kenya/ (East African Report, 30 October 2026)
• https://africacenter.org/daily-media-review/africa-media-review-for-october-30-2026/ (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 30 October 2026)
• https://peopledaily.digital/news/un-agencies-seek-ksh1-16b-as-50000-ethiopians-flee-into-kenya?utm_source=KenyaMOJA.com (People Daily, 29 October 2026)
• https://magnabureau.space/article-ethiopia-border-clashes-leave-families-hungry (Magna Bureau, 30 October 2026)
• https://qncnews.com/2026/10/30/up-to-50000-flee-moyale-fighting-into-kenya-as-un-warns-of-growing-need/ (QNC News, 30 October 2026)